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Strategies & Market Trends : Arbitrage Plays -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (257)10/8/2000 3:06:08 PM
From: Allen Furlan  Respond to of 376
 
Paul, re cg. I believe you are correct, ie cg stock will rise over next several weeks to price near the consensus take out estimate. However that consensus may be low because of the method of calculating number of shares and the complexity of the SAILS/cash versus stock calculation. For last 15 days ni has averaged about 24.5. When you know the merger date you can calculate the number of shares you will get. If the stock stays where it is you will get more than 74 dollars worth of stock. I plan to sell ni naked calls(Nov)as hedge on post merger reversal.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (257)10/26/2000 5:05:47 PM
From: Allen Furlan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 376
 
Paul, re CG. NI average for 29 days is 24.32, therefore you only get about 3.04 shares. This puts CG at about 73 dollars on exchange. I may modify my election to cash and SAILS tomorrow if NI continues down. The SAILS may well be worth holding, like a forward commodity option with a floor.


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