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To: Oblomov who wrote (59547)	10/9/2000 8:54:47 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

<What price action would need to occur for you to say, "this is a bear market?" Price action is subject to a lot of interpretations, and that is not my primary focus, so I'm not sure. (There is a plethora of talk on SI about that anyway.) What I do know, however, is that most professional money managers have an investment directive to remain invested at all times. In the face of poor earnings announcements these managers are simply moving money between sectors. Currently, money has not yet been pulled out of the market and until this happens a large sell-off will not occur. I think it will take an extended period of poor performance to induce individuals to redeem their mutual fund shares and pull money out of the market to cause a truly bear market. Until this occurs the market could be fairly listless unless some of the problems affecting earnings are alleviated. PS Are you buying here?

To: Oblomov who wrote (59547)	10/9/2000 11:31:24 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Don Hays says it is a bear market. And he is talking about the NAZ dropping below 2000 before it is over. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the critical breakdown level is 10,300, and it appears to me that it will immediately go to 9200 after that breakdown. But the major support level would be 7000. For the Dow Jones Transportation index, the critical breakdown level is 2220, and I really don't have a target for this volatile index. The all-important NASDAQ Composite has already broken its key closing low that was made back in that July 2000 decline, and I believe it can quickly move down as low as 1800-1900 in the next 12 months. In my heart, I think the risk could be back to the 1350 level that was reached in October of 1998 if the panic gets intense. The S&P 500 will break under an important head and shoulders type neckline support at 1280, and could easily fall to 800 in the next year. But we'll play this one-day at a time. This kind of gloom does not mean that some stocks will not bottom out well ahead of the indices, and that will give us an opportunity to put some of our dry powder back to work. I am not a short-term trader, but in some periods it is very important to almost assume that role, willing to plant some seeds, but also putting stop losses under those seeds to neutralize the risk. That is exactly where we are now. That's it for today. The McClellan oscillator remains very oversold, and most of the time that means a "bounce." But sad to say, on extreme periods as the traders are stepping in to play the bounce, then the chute drops the markets to those once in every four years type of despair. I can't say for sure which will prevail this time, but be careful. This is not a time to be a hero.