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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (112785)	10/9/2000 12:26:58 AM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Stephen - Re: "Paul,do you agree with Paul Meeks(ML growth fund mgr) and others that Intel is old leadership and the baton is being given to the Junipers of the world.....does this influence your investing decisions?...." To a degree, that is true - especially if you define "leadership" as a burgeoning stock price. As for investment decisions, I have invested in Juniper (by selling puts) and have made some decent money. Others fall in to this category as well - Sycamore, Corvis, Avici, Bookham, JDSU, Ciena, etc. However - all these companies - along with "also old leadership Cisco" - are more or less in the same business of Internet plumbing. At some point, there will be a LOT OF ALSO RANS from this group. This will happen when the "plumbing" growth slows down. Intel - despite its problems - has one and only one competitor - AMD - so it has an inherently simpler competitive situation. Intel's main problem (in addition to THEIR POOR EXECUTION in the Desktop CPU division) is that the bulk of its revenues are tied to desktop CPU sales - and the whims and vagaries of this market - such as whether it is growing or slowing at any given moment - and what the desktop CPU sales long term growth rate is. What keeps Intel's possibilities still attractive is its dominance in the x86 server market - and the growth in this market should parallel the growth of the Internet plumbing segment - giving Intel a growth path to "compete" with the Sycamores, Junipers, Corvis and Avici's. Toss in Intel's foray into the same plumbing segment with their NetStructure products, their IXP communications processors, XSCALE/StrongArm CPUs for wireless and handhelds, their flash memory business, and you have a Multi-Dimensional company with many parallel growth opportunities. This is in contrast to rather one-dimensional companies - although very fast growing in that one dimension - such as Juniper and Sycamore and JDSU, etc. A further thought - the Junipers and Sycamores, etc. and NTAPs (different segment) also hold the potential to become large CUSTOMERS of Intel's silicon products ! Paul