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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4369)	10/8/2000 8:54:40 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 5482

Donald, thanks for the SVGI clarification. We should remember that your 2000 ratio is now/peak. The 10/00 vs 10/98 price ratio is also of interest. But anyone can easily get that from your table. Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4369)	10/8/2000 9:17:09 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Donald, for an upper, look at the ratio of Friday's price to the 1998 bottom price [using your data]... Gottfried 10/6/2000 price vs 10/9/98 price AMAT 458% ASML 670% ASYT 574% ATMI 171% BRKS 281% CFMT 94% CMOS 481% COHU 199% CYMI 288% DPMI 280% EGLS 173% FSII 302% GSNX 337% HELX 301% IMSC 224% KLAC 282% KLIC 229% LRCX 635% LTXX 1230% MTSN 461% NANO 583% NVLS 597% PHTN 1271% PLAB 169% PRIA 158% SFAM 104% SMTL 465% SVGI 516% TER 369% TGAL 202% UTEK 98% VECO 273% WFR 357% TOTAL 306% SOX-X 398% COMPQX 225%

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4369)	10/8/2000 9:21:49 PM
From: lrrp	Respond to of 5482

rate of earnings change: AMAT: 99-to-2000=165% 00-to-2001=49% TER: 99-to-2000=192% 00-to-2001=32% The rate of earnings increase for these cyclical stocks will markedly slow in 2001 and has been anticipated by the market; so maybe this cycle is over even tho absolute earnings are higher. Its all about the rate of growth in earnings for cyclicals; so maybe the prices will continue to decline till the RATE of earnings expectations increases. I hope this not true, but I cant see what will turn these stocks around till the rate of growth once again increases> steve