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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (37975)	10/8/2000 10:39:09 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, I've found that selling PUTs across a variety of sectors tends to reduce the overall risk most of the time. Putting together your own basket of semiequips may just raise your commission cost getting in and out even at Dreyfuss without necessarily giving you much diversity. The key argument is that the sector is unlikely to remain oversold for much longer. But I certainly never predicted it get anywhere close to today's level before the cycle ended. Not knowing how we got here, I don't know what will get the sector back to valuations which match its prospects. Ian.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (37975)	10/9/2000 10:33:28 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Semiconductor Sales to Climb 37% This Year, Researcher Says By Cesca Antonelli San Jose, California, Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Semiconductor sales could jump 37 percent this year, more than previously expected, with slower growth the next two years followed by a ``moderate'' decline in 2003, Dataquest Inc. said. Sales of the thumbnail-sized chips that power everything from computers to cell phones will rise to $231.6 billion this year from $169.1 billion in 1999, Dataquest analyst Mary Olsson said. Earlier this year, the group predicted 31 percent growth. Demand for chips has climbed as more users access the Internet from a wider variety of devices and consumers buy fancier cell phones that deliver data and voice. Dataquest expects 28 percent sales growth in 2001 and 14 percent in 2002, barring economic changes or natural disaster. Worldwide revenue will top $339.5 billion in 2004, the researcher said. ``This exceeded even our expectations for growth,'' Olsson said. ``It's just strong demand across all applications sectors.'' Though personal computers still make up the biggest market for chips, communications equipment and cell phones are including more semiconductors than in the past as manufacturers add new features, she said. Memory-chip sales are posting the most growth, on pace to increase by more than 60 percent this year. Prices on dynamic random access memories, the main memory chips in PCs, will rebound in coming months, Dataquest said. Supply of flash, which stores data when a machine is switched off, will be tight until late next year or early 2002, keeping prices high. The semiconductor industry typically moves in cycles, either rushing to add enough capacity to meet demand or slashing production to cope with falling sales. Analysts have said the current boom could end as early as the first half of next year. Dataquest doesn't predict a decline in sales until 2003, with a return to ``moderate'' growth in 2004. Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast Year Total sales ($ in millions) Percent growth 1999 169,136 21.7 2000 231,601 36.9 2001 295,180 27.5 2002 336,150 13.9 2003 320,930 -4.5 2004 339,545 5.8 Source: Dataquest, October 2000