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To: Oblomov who wrote (10283)	10/9/2000 10:16:26 AM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 42834

RE: "Also, the performance was not stated in real terms. There are many 20-year periods in which the inflation-adjusted returns on equities were negative." Very good point. And if one considers the sky-high inflation in the late 60's through the early 80's, the "real" return would be significantly below the actual return. cpcug.org Re: "It is my view that the bear market just now gaining public notice will permanently drive many "investors" from the market." If it's anything like the prior secular bear market, many people will sell at the bottom and stay out of the market for 15 years, until the market nears another secular top; only to buy back in just in time for the big run-up near the end of the secular bull. Best wishes, I2

To: Oblomov who wrote (10283)	10/9/2000 11:41:31 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

David Dreman, in "Contrarian Investment Strategies" (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0684813505/kirklindstrom), makes a good case for equity investments over a long period of time. His studies include taxes and compares different asset classes. He presents tons of tables comparing Gold, T-Bills, Equities, etc. all adjusted for inflation. His basic conclusion is buy bluechips when people don't want them. In your analysis, did you account for taxes? Remember that the individual tax rate was quite high pre Regan and so any money earned in risk free money markets was subject to very high incremental taxes. Of course, things may be different this time. How long have you been bearish?