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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (59568)10/9/2000 2:21:17 PM
From: Rarebird  Respond to of 117049
 
George, I've studied the history of Bear Markets in this country fairly extensively. The "second phase" that you speak of would need to close decisively below the intraday spring lows on the NAZ to qualify as a Bear Market. That has not occurred yet. So, I am assuming that you think the COMP will decline to the 2700-2800 level in this leg down.

On the other hand, if you get a successful retest of the Spring lows during this month, then that could provide quite a springboard for a major rally in November, December and the first quarter of next year.

Greenspan's stance in regard to monetary policy after the election is going to play a big factor here, along with how extensive the pressure on corporate earnings manifests itself moving forward.

It is clear to me that the equity market is pricing in quite a slowdown in the coming months. Hasn't the stock market priced in 11 of the past 3 recessions already?