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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (57170)	10/9/2000 3:36:12 PM
From: AustinPowersIII	Respond to of 93625

Good point, no way for long term, like I say it started to smell so over-ripe the monkeys got drunk with their own hype. Keep an EYE on CNC, I know it looks lousy but somethings up, the shorts will bite the big one fairly soon on CNC Conseco I am accumulating all I can ~6.50!...ROTFLMAO!!! Have a great $$$ day AustinPowersIII, Obnoxio Plento.

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (57170)	10/9/2000 6:03:26 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Jim, I am not sure that the jury is out at this point as to whether or not RMBS is a play for more or less than 5 years. Assuming that their German suit is a win, I believe the rest of the litigations will disappear and the Dramurai will try and do what they can to "get along" (they do need RMBS engineering support to launch their products). The real question is what is the "window of opportunity" for the technology. If INTC is right (and thus our Carl is wrong), and the technology has indeed a lot of "head room" in the race to provide efficient higher frequency communication protocols between microprocessors and other devices (such as memory), then RMBS probably has more than 5 years of cash flow (which if deployed wisely, could further increase the life of the technology and its additional advances). The problem with the price of RMBS (the stock) will be later next year, once it becomes clear that the ridiculous forecasts of Dataquest (some $70 B in DRAM in 2003/2004 time frame) are just that, ridiculous, and the price of Rambus will be ratcheted down (with the rest of the semis). Does that ratcheting happen here and now or later next February or even later, I know not. But personally, I think that within the next 12 months one could once again get a very "fair" price on RMBS. Right now, assuming a bull move in the tech is still ahead (for the next few months), I still think that a fair price (25 times earnings of some "future year", like 2004) would be about $100. That assumption takes into account that RMBS indeed becomes the dominant DRAM solution, and will earn about $4/share. Of course, if CYMI is selling at 8 times next years expected earnings, many could question how rational is a PE of 25. But since right now, there are still many companies selling at much higher valuations, another last ditch effort by the bull surely could get that far (g). Zeev