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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Connolly who wrote (8612)	10/9/2000 8:49:13 PM
From: peter grossman	Respond to of 10309

James, I certainly agree about the timing. I2O is a great case in point. WIND reiterated Intel's numbers, and they didn't pan out in the time frame. But, as you've pointed out, still expect it to be huge, though. I think we need to agree on what the determinants of each pond are, and use reliable sources to get the best numbers we can. If we have reasonable estimates of market penetration and of market size and growth, even though each carry wide margins of error, we can still get decent estimates. We already know aggregate royalties and total design wins for the past two quarters, and WIND is starting to reveal market information on verticals markets; e.g. design wins in optical networking, % of DSL vendor customers, etc. We'll need to do some detective work to fill in the many, many missing pieces. But first we need a framework, and before that a taxonomy of ponds. I suspect Allen is way ahead of us, and has already said he'll suggest the starter set. -Peter