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To: Roads End who wrote (26014)	10/9/2000 3:53:14 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 436258

If I may speak for him... Like many of us, bobcor can not wait for this silliness to end so we can become longer-term bulls. -ng

To: Roads End who wrote (26014)	10/10/2000 1:39:47 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Allan's right - I can't wait for the insanity to end. The dislocations - primarily credit extended to poor risks - are enormous, and we will all suffer as a result. This is not going to be a fun decade for the ol' USA. And the sooner the Bubble gets over with, the sooner we'll pull out of it, hopefully long before I want to retire. I've been trading stocks for a long time. Started when I was fifteen, from a purely technical standpoint. I was really into computers and programmed my own software to compute moving averages, volatility bands. John Bollinger used to be my hero. I soon developed a strong contrarian tendency, one that's helped me to pick bargain prices fairly well, but one that I've had to fight in order to remain invested through bull markets. My exit strategy involves a mix of valuation study, monetary supply work, and market action. I've always been fascinated by crowd psychology and the repetition in markets, and I figured one day I'd get to see another stock market crash. When I saw things launching in 1995, I knew something big was underway. I had the good fortune of netting options in a Naz100 company, right at the start of the Bubble. I've witnessed as co-worker after co-worker has said "if only we'd get to 35 times earnings". Then, "if only we'd get to 50 times earnings". Then, "if only we'd get to 70 times earnings". Now we've traded over 100 times earnings and the fools still won't take the money and run. Meanwhile, I'm selling every share that vests now. I have a deep-seated belief that the markets are far more powerful than people give them credit for. I think they are far more than reflections of investor sentiment and economic activity. They determine capital flows for the world over, and the decisions based upon them have great weight. Bubbles have to end bad because so many poor investments are made during the blowoff. Asset deflation results in lowered creditworthiness and willingness to borrow, and shrinkage of money supply. And those are very tough on the real economy. We'll get to see if my beliefs are right on short order... BC