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To: chic_hearne who wrote (12404)	10/9/2000 7:24:22 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Chic, RE:"Here's one you'll appreciate: "Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who study it and ignore its message deserve to repeat it."" Point well taken... OTOH, I learned a long time ago not to invest in "doom and gloom"...not that it won't happen some day... I suggest you do a little more studying on gold stocks...and how they react in a crash scenario... On the other hand, you are well on your way to seeing the "big picture" and why seemingly irrational market behavior actually makes sense.

To: chic_hearne who wrote (12404)	10/9/2000 10:22:22 PM
From: Eric K.	Respond to of 275872

Hi chic-- History doesn't have a "message." There is far too much ambiguity for that. As for a quasi-useful adage to go by, I'll take "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes" any day. Regardless of the 20s fetish for economic comparisons that many people have, the political situation and general sentiment/mood over the last two decades is in some ways closer to the Gilded Age at the end of the nineteenth century. In fact, perhaps we have taken the speculative fever of those years and added enough systematic risk reduction through derivative hedging, an interventionist central bank, the sec and other governmental oversight to substantially reduce the risk premium investors attach to equities. Of course, this could simply be a fleeting change in perceptions. Just offering another possibility to consider, -Eric