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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (57241)	10/9/2000 10:36:41 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi all; Re the importance of DDR and SDRAM royalties to RMBS stock price... Since the forecasters (Dataquest, Instat, and Semico) are now predicting that DDR will gather somewhere between 17 and 35% of the 2002 DRAM marketplace, the question of whether Rambus will collect royalties on DDR becomes much more important. Figures are from Dataquest: dramreview.com Assuming that royalty rates are SDRAM 1%, RDRAM 2%, and DDR 3%, the prospective RDRAM, SDRAM and DDR royalties, as predicted by the production figures for Dataquest, Instat, and Semico for 2000 through 2003 are easy to calculate. Values are percentages of total DRAM marketplace, and therefore do not include royalties on controllers. (The DRAM market is something like $30 billion per year. Adding in controllers would likely close to double that figure, I think.) I don't have figures for Instat and Semico for 2003 split between DDR and SDRAM, and so I chose to split that share between them. SDRAM figures are calculated as the difference between total production and the RDRAM and DDR shares. This is a slight overstatement of SDRAM production, but not by more than 10% or so. RDRAM DDR SDRAM Analyst 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 --------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Dataquest 0.12% 0.58% 1.00% 1.12% 0.18% 0.30% 0.51% 0.72% 0.88% 0.61% 0.33% 0.20% In-Stat 0.10% 0.32% 0.66% 0.92% 0.09% 0.45% 0.57% 0.81% 0.92% 0.69% 0.48% 0.27% Semico 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 0.03% 0.09% 0.66% 1.05% 1.48% 0.95% 0.75% 0.64% 0.50% Adding the DDR and SDRAM figures together gives: RDRAM DDR/SDRAM Analyst 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 --------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Dataquest 0.12% 0.58% 1.00% 1.12% 1.06% 0.91% 0.84% 0.92% In-Stat 0.10% 0.32% 0.66% 0.92% 1.01% 1.14% 1.05% 1.08% Semico 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 0.03% 1.04% 1.41% 1.69% 1.98% This is why I believe that the legal news is far more important to RMBS' stock price than news of RDRAM (which is quite dead anyway). -- Carl

To: Bilow who wrote (57241)	10/10/2000 8:26:37 AM
From: sylvester80	Respond to of 93625

Bilow, I see you are spreading FUD and BS again. The drop had nothing to do with any of your BS. If it did, Infineon would not have hit a new all time low yesterday and neither the semis would have hit a 9 month low. TI (TXN) hit a new 11 month low. ADI which was strong like Rambus before yesterday also broke. PMCS the same. dailynews.yahoo.com Yesterday was juts a bad day for the semis. All the semis have had their clock cleaned (down 50+%). The few strong ones (ADI, RMBS, PMCS etc..) all gave in yesterday which in my view is an indication of the bottom. IMO, yesterdays move was purely technical in nature. It happened exactly at the time when the NAZ was in a panic selling. Everything sold off. Once the stock broke $75, the stop loss orders kicked in. The $75 resistance was tested at 10:45am when the NAZ Index (^NDX) was at 3235 and dropping. Right before that it had tested 3250 after having dropped to 3219 at 10:18am. So the whole market was coming down, people panicking on all stocks (and especially semis - look at the story above), knowing full well that we were heading down to test NDX 3200 and probably a lot lower. So at 10:45am was when the sell off for the market picked up steam and headed to 3185 by 11:20am. The semis moved down in unison at the same time. With the $75 resistance broken, the stop loss orders kicked in. Hell, yesterday also Infineon hit a new all time low. Must have been all the good infineon news I guess LMAO. That does not look like a winning stock to anyone. Take a look at it's chart. finance.yahoo.com