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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: y2kate who wrote (26167)	10/10/2000 7:09:15 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

y2kate, You seem to believe that the actions of government and/or financial institutions could prevent a melt down and/or a prolonged bear market. They could postpone it, and they are, but they can not stop a bubble from bursting. Study other crashes, bubbles, and manias. Once they start to unwind they are unstoppable. This is not my view, this is the lesson that history teaches. prosperity, productivity, technological revolution, etc. Ho, ho, ho. This sort of argument has been used in other bubbles. It is the cornerstone of the clown ideology. They made the same argument in 1929 and 1965. In these and other manias the heartfelt belief in each case is "This time is different." I just can't see the markets falling to pieces like many are predicting Try harder. -g Seriously, do you think that investors ever once saw it coming clearly enough to get out of the way? Do you really think that today's clown is a smarter investor than those that came before? Perhaps you feel it helps to have a 'puter hooked to the net where one can get up to date information and exchange ideas? Nope. Most of us here want to be rational long-term investors, but we realize that our hand has now been forced and this will not be possible until she unwinds. True, in the widest timeframe it makes sense to be a bull. Any fool can see that. However, given the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in now, being a long-term bull is foolish. The clowns should remind themselves that we have not had a new high since March. That makes up moves countertrends -- counter to the move of least resistance -- down. Look, who know. Maybe we get our 4th/1st quarter pop. If we do I will be going long until it stops working. But I won't be buying any CSCO, INTC, NTAP, JNPR, or whatever other stupifyingly overvalued POS you can mention, for my long-term account. ps: I will not try any harder than this to "convince" you or others. This post is not original. Many other articles, books, and even posts on SI are more learned and eloquent. If you truly believe that "this time is different" or that we are not in a mania at all, then you should trade that belief.

To: y2kate who wrote (26167)	10/10/2000 10:08:26 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Y2Kate: You make some great points, and certainly owning stocks has been a 'miracle' of late. Here's my response to some of your points: < But the financial industry is not the business of not owning stocks- and a healthy stock market is definitely in our national interest. There are powerful forces at work in keeping it all afloat, and I think they are bigger than any of us. I think those long the market, over time, find themselves in alignment with those forces.> This is a very good point, but IMO bolsters the REAL doom and gloomers in that by 'keeping things afloat' in the past few years [as well as wall streets hype machine keeping everyones money piling in] things have become MORE dangerous if a bad sell off does come. More people are involved, more leverage, etc. The analogy of the US Forest service eliminating forest fires for decades while brush piled up under the canopy until finally POOOF is a good one IMO. Bottom line on this point... I would NEVER depend on 'forces' to keep my money safe... trust yourself. <And really, we are living in extraordinary times. Who could have imagined the prosperity we're enjoying today twenty years ago? Look at the wealth that's been created.> If it's too good to be true it probably is. < We are a very productive society still in the beginning stages of a technological revolution that has and is fundamentally changing the way we live and work and think. I think stock picking is going to be extremely important as people abandon the junk. But I just can't see the markets falling to pieces like many are predicting, and especially not now, with the fourth quarter looming.> Last thing first... it sounds like you need a rally in the 4th quarter. You have to look at that fact and say 'do I want to be in this position?' I mean if your in it as a speculation I think that's fine, once we get through Oct, the markets traditionally rally through the hollidays, especially biotech with the conferences coming in Jan. But if your a long term investor worrying about the next quarter, I believe you own too much stock. Don't ruin you're life worrying about ANYTHING, let along stocks. As for 'a productive society in the beginning of a revolution', yes I suppose this is true, but as has been chronicled on this thread there have been MANY such instances in the past [railroads, telephone, electricity, etc etc] and at some point they ALL attracted WAY too much capital as the public piled in and far from guaranteed profit in these new technologies, it was closer to guaranteed loss as some point. Have we reached that point?? In .com for sure?? Many thing telecom as well, but the important thing is that you must realize, great new technologies will [some have] attract more capital than is reasonable blowing valuations to dangerous levels for investors... this happens, you have to decide whether it HAS happend [as many here believe, as you pointed out], but be aware that it can and will. Good luck. DAK