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To: Liatris Spicata who wrote (38002)10/10/2000 10:03:32 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Spot Price of 64Mb DRAM Set to Rise, But Recovery Could Be Short-Lived
October 10, 2000 (TAIPEI) -- The 64Mb DRAM contract price is stable at US$7, and the spot price appears ready to bottom out.



According to reports, system manufacturers and distributors in China, the United States and Europe are expected to replenish their inventories in mid-October to cope with rapidly-growing demand associated with the approach of the Christmas season. The DRAM spot market price is expected to recover by mid-November, as bargain-hunting buying is waiting for the right time to break into the market.

However, the pessimists still outnumber the optimists at present. Micron Technology Inc. and Korea's Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. and Hyundai Electronics Industries Co., Ltd., the three leading global chipmakers, disappointed by the slide in the October DRAM contract price, say that there is still no sign of an early recovery in buying interest, and that the DRAM market is still influenced by this summer's significant drop in demand.

The spot price of 64Mb DRAM is presently hovering around US$6-US$6.30 per unit, up slightly from last week's low of below US$6. The contract price for the end of October is slightly lower than at the beginning of the month. A market watcher blamed the slipping spot price on run-down demand for PCs during July and August in Europe, the world's biggest PC do-it-yourself market. In the near term, the level of demand for PCs in Europe is still the crucial factor influencing the spot price. If demand rises, so will the spot price.

Fortunately, with the year-end season approaching, distributors in China, United States and Europe are beginning to notice that their inventories might not be sufficient to meet a sudden surge in demand. Buyers are expected to enter the DRAM market in mid-October, pushing the spot price up further.

One DRAM manufacturer predicted that the DRAM spot market would once again be a seller's market by the mid-November, but cautioned that a price recovery might be no more than a flash in the pan. He said the movement of the spot price would be dominated by market demand from the fourth quarter onwards, instead of the availability of supply. If demand for electronics products remains sluggish, the spot price will not be able to sustain its recovery.

The level of demand for PCs will be clearly signalled by the fourth quarter financial results of VIA Technologies Inc. and other chipset makers. Local manufacturers are keeping their fingers crossed.

(Commercial Times, Taiwan)