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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (38007)	10/10/2000 3:43:37 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito, Gottfried, Katherine, Big Bucks and John L., When I look at the Dorsey Wright Extended chart going back to the AMAT's cyclical high of aprox. $29(split adjusted) in Aug. 1995 through its low at $11 I see there approx. 62% drop. Then, in May 1997 AMAT's approx. high was $36 with a subsequent low in $11 for a 69.44% drop. Based on the my data of presplit highs since 1991 I get a High AMAT price of $151 in the next cycle and low of $48 based on the greatest standard deviation of highs and lows per each year. However, running the low standard deviation figures I get approx. high price of $33.334 and a low price of $22.75. In review of this data and what Lester E. has always posted, "AMAT doubles every two years then the higher figure of $151 is probably the best high from where we stand at this point with the low somewhere between $49 thru $37. $37 would give us a drop of 67% which is between the drops in 1995-96, and 1997-98. The IBD has a Relative strength of 28 according to the Monday paper. AMAT's bottom RS during its previous lows was around 7. The only concern which I have is whether the SEMI's Orders, Shipments and BTB will hold up where they currently are and whether Katherine feels that we will have a glut of chips. Just my opinions. ANy thoughts. Paul