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To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (24931)	10/10/2000 2:31:15 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Kelvin, I personally believe that the SOX is in the middle of a down cycle that will last a few more months. The SOX runs in a fairly well defined cycle, although there are times when the cycle is a little longer or shorter than normal. Once it gets going in a certain direction, it generally keeps going that way until the cycle bottoms or tops out. I think that the SOX might be short term oversold but don't think a rally is sustainable. The statement from XLNX might cause a short term pop, but I don't think it will have any staying power. I would continue to either avoid semiconductor stocks or short rallies. Would not be long for more than a scalp or short term trade. JMO and I might be wrong.