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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75925)	10/10/2000 4:02:25 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP - E&P's off their highs ? As of yesterday how about: current vs highs APA $56 vs $69 BR $35 vs $46 LD $35 vs $40 NBL $36 vs $42 NFX $33 vs $50 OXY $20 vs. $25 OEI $14 vs. $18 P $ 64 vs $70 TX $53 vs $67 VPI $22 vs $25 etc... I still think than any significant spike here is a profit taking & rotation opportunity-play to drillers/later cycle service plays imho - as quite obviously, both recent history & common sense endorse that the E&P pureplays are more commodity price sensitive than will be the driller/service co's - especially at this stage of the cycle and especially to the downside... all I have to say is - remember Sept 1999. We shall see... much of the remaining E&P bet is a weather related one - the drillers & some service co's will unquestionably still ramp earnings into declining commodity prices for the next 6-9 mos - so why "bet" on the weather when you get equal if not superior value, better fundamentals and are not reliant upon weather, or a Middle East crisis to sustain longterm fundamental momenteum over the next 2-3 quarters. I do NOT think Oil, or Gas prices will be higher in April than they are today - quite the contrary and as we learned last September; the market will disocunt that move well, well in advance. Personally; I'd slowly, but steadilly "average" out of E&P strength here and average into drillers here... just my personal opinion; but - you can still maintain exposure to the group; just be smart; make sure you find value & hopefully those individual co's with upside to production & exploration, or those who are still dramatic laggards in fundamental valuation mutliples like TLM etc. They tried hard at the end of the market day to stop the bleeding... the manipulation is running out of steam - quickly; I still say; just one news event away from a 600 point 2 day NAZ meltdown... - too many holes in the dike & not enough fingers.