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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (5888)	10/10/2000 4:34:19 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

It's not bp, read my comments after the below. <<Lucent Tech (LU) 31 3/8 -15/16: -- Update -- Lucent cites three factors for the warning: lower than expected revenues and margins in the optical systems business, higher reserves for bad debt in the emerging service provider market, and larger than expected decline in circuit switching business. Of these, the first and third have been problems for Lucent all year and appear to be company-specific, but the second is something that recently hit Ciena (CIEN) as well and could be a factor for other optical equipment vendors. Most amazing and complicated on one hand but obvious on the other. Why is the optical sector having such a hard time of it? All you have to do is read the above to understand it. LU, as a company, is a window in to the telecom sector. The telecom sector has overextended themselves from the excitement from wearing rose color glasses when trying get a piece of the over cooked pie from the NET last year. The fall out from coming to terms with reality in the telecom sector is still happening and will continue to happen for the remainder of this year. As we watch the B2C sector comes to term with reality we are now seeing the telecom sector doing the same. As there was too much competition and many ill conceived ideas in the B2C sector the same can be said of the telecom sector. I see consolidation in the telecom sector not only in the service providers but in the equipment sector too. Before with prices being too high that only the big's could pull it off such as CSCO and the available pool was getting smaller, it is now getting larger by the day, mid size players can join in now. Greg