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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (12627)	10/10/2000 5:45:09 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, Interesting comparisons in pru report, especially market shares, growth and ASPs. It shows Intel's ASP unchanged, AMD's ASPs growing steadily. Joe

To: AK2004 who wrote (12627)	10/10/2000 5:54:25 PM
From: EricRR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

IDIOTS!!!!! IDIOTS!!!!! IDIOTS!!!!!! <rant> Do these fools even read what they write!!!!??? They say: -ASPs could become a big problem. Weakness in PC demand plus increased potential for processor oversupply in Q4/Q1 is a recipe for lower ASPs, which means lower margins. ... we believe Intel is better positioned longer term in this battle... But then they predict: AMD ASP $ 88 $ 93 $99 $104 Year average =$97 Intel ASP $ 190 $ 190 $190 $190 Year average =$190 Source: Company reports and Prudential Securities. AMD's ASP's? ... UP! UP! UP! to... $104 But intel's ASP's are supposed to be steady at $190. Come on, who's going to lose in a price war? The fact of the matter is that Intel has NOT been able to segment the consumer market from the corporate market. They can't go to HP and say "sell these P3's for more to your corporate customers because they aren't buying AMD now, but sell these P3 CPU's to your retail customers for less so we can compete with AMD. Dell might obey, bet the other companies are going to take advantage of AMD's prices to increase margins. This is called competition. Analysts forget that the Infamous "celeron strategy" only works if you are the technology leader. Intel is not. And they charge more for their chips. What will happen when AMD tries to sell their extra CPU's? Either Intel's market share falls or ASP's go down, DUH! </rant>

To: AK2004 who wrote (12627)	10/10/2000 6:39:25 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, <-ASPs could become a big problem. Weakness in PC demand plus increased potential for processor oversupply in Q4/Q1 is a recipe for lower ASPs, which means lower margins. While we believe Intel is better positioned longer term in this battle, and with much of this dynamic already in both stocks, we would rather take a wait and see position on both INTC and AMD in the near term.> Intel clearly is better positioned for longer term but what crap! The only one who is going to get hurt in a price war for the next few quarters is Intel. AMD's ASPs may not increase much as a result of price war but Intel's ASPs will positively collapse. Intel has no meaningful response if AMD cuts 1G price to about $200 this quarter and that will not materially impact AMD ASPs. <- In fact, in the last week, we have seen rapid deterioration in the spot market prices of AMD's Thunderbird processors, which declined between 3% and 23% from the previous week. This compares to a more typical week over week decline between 2-4%.> One more guy who does not understand the mechanics of MHz ramp and market share drive. And, this is coming from someone who apparently worked in this industry. <In addition to a possible glut of high-end processors, which on its own is cause for concern, we believe AMD's low end Athlon/Duron is a clear hit in the consumer market. We expect this product could be the low-end processor product to beat in 2001. However this success could turn out to be a mix problem for AMD given that more sales of Duron relative to the higher end Athlon/Thunderbird may take a toll on AMD's overall ASPs. Remember, the critical issue for AMD in 2001 is not necessarily manufacturing execution (we believe they will execute), its corporate market acceptance for the Athlon, which the company in general has never been able to obtain. AMD needs to penetrate the corporate market in order to achieve a more diversified end-market base which in turn leads to more stable ASPs and we are not seeing evidence of much success on this front. > Amen! This is the most well written part of the report. Chuck

To: AK2004 who wrote (12627)	10/10/2000 9:54:42 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert - RE: "In fact, in the last week, we have seen rapid deterioration in the spot market prices of AMD's Thunderbird processors, which declined between 3% and 23% from the previous week. This compares to a more typical week over week decline between 2-4%." DUH! It's called a PRICE CUT! I think we get BETTER pricing information from The Register than from analysts. SSB's plagiarism and this lame statement don't help these analysts' cause. I agree with his statement that AMD needs commercial wins for Athlon and that Duron rocks. I hope AMD addresses concerns about potential processor oversupply issues tomorrow.