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To: BigBull who wrote (75967)10/10/2000 7:48:19 PM
From: Tomas  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
The International Monetary Fund's recently released World Economic Outlook forecast 4.7 per cent growth for the global economy for this year. And it goes on to tip 4.2 per cent for next year. However, the forecasts were based on oil prices of US$26 per barrel for this year and US$23 for next year.

The IMF also warned that every US$5 per barrel increase in the price of oil would cut about 0.2 per cent off global GDP growth.

That suggests that, even if oil is sustained at around US$35 per barrel into next year (and I am doubtful it will stay above US$30 beyond winter), you would look at reducing the growth rate projected by the IMF from 4.2 per cent to, say, 3.7 per cent -- a slowdown, yes, but hardly a recession.

From The Straits Times (Singapore), October 9