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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (12685)	10/10/2000 8:07:01 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, <ASPs? If it is retail only then intel can afford to give it away.> I think Intel can steer higher Mhz parts to retail if it wants but I don't think Intel can give away product in "retail only". What is stop the OEMs from using the same parts in the business systems are flat out dumping them in the spot market? <MHz? Likely Intel would through higher end> In Q1, do you think Intel will have much, if any excess product outside the Duron range? Dell and some of the other OEMs with high-end focus will suckup all the high MHz parts so I doubt if there will be any inventory at the higher speed grades for next several quarters. Do you? <Will it hurt intel more than amd? > Let's forget about Intel. The real question is where will it hurt AMD and how much. Clearly Athlon sales are not going to affected since Intel will not be shipping much at those sped grades. Duron sales at the lower-end can suffer but does that really matter to AMD on the profitability side? The only effect of an aggressive price move by Intel could be bad. The discount on the excess inventory will kill the pricing of remaining 30+M units. It could destroy its pricing without improving profitability. And, with laptop Athlon/Durons on the way, Intel may have enough of a challenge ensuring it does not take a hit on that segment. Intel is better off moving the capacity to chipsets where it has almost nothing to lose against VIA, and flash where the demand is still good. The fallacy i see with the price war scenario is that I do not see anyway in which Intel can grow profits. I would love to hear any scenario that gives a different result. (It is intellectually stimulating) OTOH, if Intel wants to fight market share battles and go for profitless prosperity, AMD could get hurt at the low-end but would not see much drop off in profits. Chuck