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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (383)10/11/2000 11:21:15 AM
From: Lane Hall-Witt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4583
 
OJ,

LOL! It's good to be back -- have mostly been vacationing from the markets during the Sept-Oct slumber, but am now perking up and looking for bargains to accumulate for my end-of-year position plays. This market looks brutal right now, on the long side. I agree with your broad assessment that this selloff "feels different" somehow. The big money is clearly lightening up on tech in a major way: not just dumping a little bit to shake out weak hands, but selling themselves to reduce their overexposure to the sector. I think the market is factoring in the time lag we're going to see between tech investment in the U.S. and tech investment in the rest of the world. A lot of analysts say we're still early in the tech rollout, if you take a global perspective. And I think this is generally true, but the rosy assumption that the global rollout would pick up the instant demand in the U.S. slowed is probably overly optimistic. I expect a few slow quarters before overseas demand steps in to offset the inevitable slowdown in the U.S. buildout.

I'm still optimistic that there are pockets of tech that'll do very well next year, but I think the days of throwing money at anything tech are behind us. Are your charts showing us any patterns of accumulation that might tip us off to next year's big tech stories?