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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Hermesmann who wrote (38112)	10/11/2000 9:07:53 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

I know, It has plagued me all my life.Not having "fresh cash" during free falls is the result of not selling properly at the top.It is singularly the hardest thing to do. Right now as stocks get oversold and often ridiculously cheap doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they are low risk great buys. That assumes we have money to buy. After having missed a great opportunity to buy in low like now must be the force that makes us sell at the next top.It is hard to overcome greed.One of the best aids is to dream of having purchasing power during one of these routs and then having the nerve to buy in during the freefall.JMHO I struggle with constantly just like all traders do. Bob

To: Bill Hermesmann who wrote (38112)	10/11/2000 10:45:23 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Bill, The derisive comments were mostly directed at how Jonathon Joseph had come to his conclusions of a cyclical peak in the SCE sector. He came out and said that there was an oversupply of tantalum capacitors in his July 5th call. Within a weeks time, NEC came out and said they were increasing their supply of tantalum capacitors because of a shortage. He used exactly one datapoint upon which to make his hypothesis. He would have failed out of any statistical school for that. The fact that he used one datapoint was bad enough; the fact that NEC came out within a week and basically said he was wrong on that one datapoint is worse still. Additioanlly, TSMC yesterday came out and said they were on track for capex in '01 and beyond, from what they said in their previous guidance. If this is indeed the case, the cycle is still nowhere near over, as TSMC is the new barometer upon which to measure chip demand and they are planning large increases in capacity going forward. Brian Just because stocks in the sector are down does not make his assertion correct; it merely is a reflection of the terrible sentiment in the market all year. ie CSCO, MSFT and a host of others also have been drifting down from their highs. We are still a ways off until JJ is proven correct. My guess is that in the end he will be proven horribly wrong.