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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (76011)	10/11/2000 9:18:40 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

I wonder why no DOE numbers yet. They usually get them out Wednesday at 9, even with a holiday on Monday.

To: Roebear who wrote (76011)	10/11/2000 10:22:22 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<Not sure how energy will hold up in the short term, any opinions?> Roebear; we seeing a flight to safety rotation - obviously ride it here. I'm going to trade my Oilpatch stocks "defensively" - in that I'll trade them off the crude Oil & Nat Gas price tape - period. Let 'em ride if Oil & Gas prices keep moving up and right now - we're getting the flight to safety rotation; but - those same inflows - become overnight outflows the minute they decide to return to tech. So the minute the sentiment & media spin changes & the tape turns; or if the overall market just implodes (which is the major risk I see vs. a Tech bounce that sticks) - take profits and use tight trailing stops. My Gold PM/XAU stocks - I'm trading offensively here; margined a moderate amount. Lost of XAU shorts into this recent blow off - could trigger a nice 10-15% 3 day type of move imo; I'll ease off my margin - taking profits on only the margined position into that type of bounce; but let the rest ride to that eventual XAU 90-125 that I see; or even re-add/leverage on any return to a XAU 40-45 worst case bottom. Praying for that OSX run to 165 by year end & I'm a heavy profit taker; I'll rotate to XAU sub 55 with 1/2 of my oil dollars from the OSX 165 range, the rest in cash for re-buying an Oilpatch dip - maybe even re-short a Tech-bounce if seen. I think that the worst for the overall market actually comes in Q1 & Q2 next year - that may keep the OSX from reaching its fundamental peak of OSX 200ish; so we'll see the overall market weakness cap the OSX next spring imo. We may see the ultimate high for the OSX in the next few months by year end. I think we get a complete washout of Tech and return to historic valuation multiples. Tech's growth rate has come down & multiples must come down - NAZ 1850-2250 seems fair value to me in reality & that's ONLY if Crude softens back to the mid-high $20's by spring. Dollar is going to really correct - we'll see massive foreign outflows from our market - gold is going to see a speculative move on the derivative squeeze; has too... too many market pressures hitting them from too many directions; too many holes in the dike & not enough fingers - the Gold derivatives will implode & we're going to ultimately (who knows when ?) see a speculative move in Gold prices - a large one; a 20 yearish move... we have to - fundamentally because of the short-derivative positions & what the physical deliverability impossibilities will raise. With nothing else looking as attractive; the speculators will rush to Gold. These trading firms - borrowed gold at 1%; sold it short; took the funds & leveraged the US Equity Market. A blow off in the US Equity Market & the US Dollar; moves gold up and they then have negative leverage - having much, much less capital to pay back a growing gold short position. Watch OPEC & the Arabs move into the Euro & Gold - which they are doing and have to do; they were a huge buyer of Gold back in 1977-1980; they know what gold is & they know where the US Dollar that they get paid in is going... they will roll Petro-dollars into the Euro and Gold shortly - providing a breakout catalyst for Gold. History is going to teach a whole new generation a lesson here. Bubbleonians are still in denial here; still waiting for a dip to buy ... or, are buying allready. Read the tech threads - they've been buying for a week here; there is no capitulation and little fear. They are still "buy the dip" oriented. We're going to get a 400-600 pt 2 day NAZ washout soon imo that will bring some fear & capitulation....one more unexpected miss from a core company is all its going to take; one unforseen comment in an upcoming conference call. $35 Cisco - it's coming....