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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JLS who wrote (37967)	10/11/2000 10:11:04 AM
From: George Burdell	Respond to of 57584

MOT is too cheap here. A 20% haircut off the 52 week low because one line in one of their four main sectors will see 5% lower revenue in the coming year? Seems a little drastic. If this was a high flyer, 20% might make sense, but this was already pretty cheap. Taking a partial LT position here, will add if the knife falls below $20.

To: JLS who wrote (37967)	10/11/2000 10:16:33 AM
From: KevinThompson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

From Briefing: 10:01 ET Nasdaq Quotes : Hearing reports from trading floors that Nasdaq is having trouble with its quote system, producing some misleading quotes. Isn't this par for the course? Amazing how that always seems to happen on big down days. Also, this would confirm what I read in an earlier post from John722 about brokers getting together (colluding?) to discuss a break below 3000. Message 14551260 09:43 ET Nasdaq Support : Hearing from sources that Morgan Stanley is expecting Nasdaq (3151) to take out support at 3100 and perhaps bottom at around 2800. KT

To: JLS who wrote (37967)	10/11/2000 10:52:02 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57584

To ALL: . . . . . . . What Has Changed? . . . . . The economy is strong. Techs are still growing rapidly. The internet is not going away or dying. What is happening with box makers like Apple, Dell, etc. is simply that they are now seen as appliance manufactures. . .like Whirlpool or Maytag. No more glamour. This same effect is also happening to Internets. But this is nothing new. AOL changed from being a rapid growth darling to a boring ol' internet with steady earnings. When a company has extraordinary growth. . . they are 'all the rage'. When they are reduced to ordinary growth. . . they quickly become boring and are no longer deserving of the high multiples we awarded them. This happened to Cisco and Intel a while back as well. The difference is that as earnings become "regular" on certain KEY techs, other techs are seen in a more regular light. . . and no longer deserving of the higher multiples. This gives cause for a broadbased selloff. So while we are quick to pass the months declines off as manipulation. . . and rightly so for as much as we've seen. . . .we must likewise acknowledge that there is a fundamental change happening within the internet industry. . . . . .though no tech stock is immune. And perhaps THIS REALIZATION the real capitulation. Domestic internet growth is becoming regular. . .and no longer meteoric. So our job has not changed. We still seek out the future winners, wherever they may be. The only thing that has changed is that the names we have thrown around for so long. . .as the darlings. . .the same names that have made us money so often in the past. . .are suddenly being retired as "regular" earners. I am talking about Yahoo, Apple, Lucent, Intel, Dell, etc. . . and the many stocks related to these. They made many people much money very quickly. Now they will make fewer people regular money a bit slower. That's all. I say all this so that investor/traders do not begin to believe the HYPE. . .which would have us all hiding in bunkers. The hype by short-sellers is peaked. Doubts are placed on all tech stocks. And the biggest bulls are clawing at the exit doors. But that is all that has changed. We are STILL in a technology revolution with many many new products yet to be developed. . .and productivity still on the increase. Our future is BRIGHT. So we have our contrarian indications. Now all we need is capitulation to get it over with. . . and open the door for the Fat Cat Po' Boys to buy up the market at ridiculous prices. . . .so they can "distribute" it back to the small investors in a few months. What an amazing plan for capitalizing on the public. Where we went wrong in buying too soon was underestimating the level of greed on Wall Street. They were not happy to have Lucent at 30. . .they needed it at 20. Same with Motorola. Never again will we "anticipate" where greedy manipulators will quit choking the markets. That was a mistake. Each time they place their stranglehold on the markets, we will go short until AFTER they go long. This is FAR safer. . .and will end up being more lucrative. . .due to reducing the loss. I apologize to the thread for losing prudence during September. That was wrong. In the extraordinary volatility of this New Market, it is simply too dangerous to play on the edge. As volatility rises, we need to be more prudent about our trading. . . . . . . . not less. That was a tough lesson to learn. From here on in. . . . . . We need to remain the ones who get out early. . . . but ALSO be the ones who get in late. Best wishes to all, Rande Is