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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (4898)	10/11/2000 11:00:14 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

mike, QCOM at 75 1/4 we are getting close... For me, QCOM 73- 73 1/2 is a buy. Best Regards, J.T.

To: marginmike who wrote (4898)	10/11/2000 11:00:40 AM
From: y2kate	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Thanks Mike, So what do you think- no 4th quarter rally this time? It seems like quick trades are the only safe way to go. Are you still holding your Qcom? (how's the restaurant biz? I was reading about your place on QRTS- it sounds great!) -Kate

To: marginmike who wrote (4898)	10/12/2000 12:45:02 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

mike, notice BKX how it has tanked over the last week or so when we spotted this undiscernable turn last week in the archives and we are now below what used to be critical support BKX 780... BKX is now at BKX 767 down 41 down 5%... go to full text and Type in BKX 780 and you will see MITA post 20 x plus in the month of May and now you know the importance of this level... The only way to verify if BKX importance was picked up is the backtest: MITA first spotted it the day after new highs were registered off of the double top after the close on OCT 4th posted early a.m. oct 5th in MITA post 4,766 off of the daily Rydex Update: **************************************************** ...<The market did not have to deal with another upside gap albatross out of the blocks this morning and was able to get that bounce to stick into the bell from oversold levels. That said, I have posted numerous times how SPX 1,440 support must hold over the past few weeks and now this support has become resistance. Today we hit an intraday high of SPX 1,439.99 only to turn back to close at SPX 1,434.32. We have had one false upside close above SPX 1,440 on 9/28 when we closed at SPX 1,458 only to close back below this level the next day at on 9/29 SPX 1,436.51. While we may book a close above SPX 1,440 tomorrow, we need a second follow thru close above 1,440 to validate the first close above this level, if it is even going to materialize. Now today we get the bounce in tech from oversold levels, but notice how BKX and UTIL turn back down from near 52 week highs. This is the very reason why the SPX was only up 7 + points. UTIL must be watched very closely in here as we booked a higher high all time high double top at UTIL 401.47 on 10/2 after a previous all time high of UTIL 397.04 on 9/15. In 2 quick trading days since we are below the converging 25 and 13 day MA 383/385 level to close at UTIL 382.07 down 11 down 2.86%. A second consecutive close below UTIL 383 will raise a warning flag for the SPX and DOW and bring an immediate double test back to its 50 day MA UTIL 367 level tested and held back to back on 9/20 9/21. Likewise, BKX after hitting 52 week high on 9/11 at BKX 918.09 we approached a double top yesterday close at BKX 913.60 only to turn back down today to close at BKX 896 and change down 17 - 1.91%. BKX must stay above its 50 day MA BKX 870 but first will test 25 day MA BKX 887+ that was registered on 9/29. If BKX and UTIL continue to move in tandem down tech slowdon in earnings will catch up to NDX and SPX and we will register lower lows>.... ************************************************ It was also highlighted on microtest individual finacial issues thru MER, C, JPM in MITA post 4,775 that a problem was up: To: bobby beara who wrote (4769) From: J.T. Friday, Oct 6, 2000 1:56 AM ET Reply #4775 of 4928 bobby, as you well point out, Rydex sentiment numbers is picking up what the put/call ratio is not... Namely, in October 1998 they were fighting it on the way up with heavy assets on the Bear side and now they are fighting it wanting to stay long on the way down heavily weighted long in the face of red flags everywhere... On a hypothetical basis... I did a quick scan the month/week before the 87' crash and both bank stocks as measured by C and brokerage stocks as measured by MER were very strong and showed no discernable slippage until the day of the crash. Both MER and C are relatively strong now just as thery were in '87 prior to the crash. MER a break below the 100 day MA 62 7/8, C 51 3/4 the 100 day MA which has good latitude. MER for me is key barometer. A break of MER 62 7/8 1 close and lights out. UTIL only portrayed 1 day advance notice that was only slightly detectable. Todays UTIL action and a nasty close confirms yesterday that the break was real. We closed at UTIL 375 down another 7 (DJUA)and this clearly breaks the 13/25 day MA... UTIL 368 the 50 day MA must hold (UTIL 366 the final elasticty level on 1 close only)or blow out all long pos if you have any... HWP is ugly, IBM is losing traction. JPM had its first close below 160 in over amonth. A second close below 160 and goodnight... Rydex NDX Long OTC is holding relatively firm but it is SPX Long in both funds where Bulls are finding comfort... This is obviously a contrary indicator negative if you are a Bull... Rydex SPX sentiment numbers alone tell me SPX 1,380 test is on deck very soon. Today SPX 1,440 resistance held again as SPX closed up 2 to SPX 1,436 and tomorrow is the last straw to get above this level on the close for bulls or we will break hard and fast... Once NDX 3,580 was out and SPX 1,440 confirmed I have turned Bearish the Bulls are running out of safety net shelters to flock to... Bulls need a mounting assault tomorrow or else... CAPITULATION CITY>>> *********************************************** And MITA 4,779: To: J.T. who wrote (4766) From: J.T. Friday, Oct 6, 2000 12:09 PM ET Reply #4779 of 4928 After wednesday close I mentioned the slithering snake turn down in UTIL and BKX... Today BKX is banging on its rising 50 day MA which is now BKX 873. Likewise, On weds we mentioned the 50 day MA must hold 870 one close below this level and it is lights out. Right now we are at BKX 871... down 31 down 3.48%... Last night I mentioned JPM and MER as micro-barometers and they are both tanking below key supports... MER is down 4+ to 62 1/4 below critical support 62 7/8 while JPM is confirming yesterday's break of 160 as no fluke now down 5 to 154 3/8... ...<I did a quick scan the month/week before the 87' crash and both bank stocks as measured by C and brokerage stocks as measured by MER were very strong and showed no discernable slippage until the day of the crash. Both MER and C are relatively strong now just as thery were in '87 prior to the crash. MER a break below the 100 day MA 62 7/8, C 51 3/4 the 100 day MA which has good latitude. MER for me is key barometer. A break of MER 62 7/8 1 close and lights out>.... ...<HWP is ugly, IBM is losing traction. JPM had its first close below 160 in over amonth. A second close below 160 and goodnight...>... This break is very real and will accelerate this afternoon...>.... ********************************************** Now we have not had 2 closes below BKX 780 since July 5th and 6th and today will most likely be fthe first close below BKX 780 and this verifies technical weakness of the broad market that all is not well.. Until we get back above BKX 780 on a close we will not be out of danger over the nearterm... Best Regards, J.T.