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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Shread who wrote (32503)10/11/2000 11:32:25 AM
From: Galirayo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
 
I have a feeling that ...

The 18 wheelers are already sitting at the loading dock .. the fork lifts are waiting for the signal to load the trucks.



To: Paul Shread who wrote (32503)10/11/2000 11:58:38 AM
From: Gersh Avery  Respond to of 42787
 
I'm watching the ticks on the yen and euro futures .. you can see the money movement.



To: Paul Shread who wrote (32503)10/12/2000 9:45:39 AM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
 
Hi Paul ..

I thought that I'd give you a little better response that I did yesterday.

If a fund manager here in the US were to call up his broker and tell him "in about an hour we're going to need to sell 5 million shares of XYZ." You can bet that in an hour the price of XYZ is going to be lower. The broker and/or his buddiees will be selling calls on XYZ and possibily selling S&P futures to boot .. Some might be shorting the stock as well .. however selling the stock in this case might be against the law (front running).

So anyway .. every step of the way and in every way possible, the transaction gets skimmed.

Now if the fund manager is in Europe running a fund there you have an additional skim stage available. Currency futures.

First of all, when there is a large movement of cash from the US to Euroland, there will be a change in the exchange rates. Folks buying the Euro will make the Euro go up in value.

If someone knows that there will be a large flow in, say, ten minutes, the futures will tick getting ready for that movement.

Time of day is something that I consider when I'm looking at this relationship. For example: I see the US stock futures move down and the Euro futures move up. And this movement started at ~3AM. I know that the markets are open over there and that the overseas fund managers have decided to move money out of the US. Once our markets have opened, there seems to be about a five to fifteen minute time delay between the movement of the currency futures and stock price movement.

The relationship between these movements grows fuzzy after noon.

Yesterday the flows reversed almost to the minute when I posted about flows heading out of the US.

Something that makes Euro movements hard to read is that there is an almost religious belief amoung currency traders that the Euro can do nothing but fall. So that every tick up is met with currency traders shorting the thing ..

This morning .. there is buying from Europe.