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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (12909)	10/11/2000 1:10:10 PM
From: EricRR	Respond to of 275872

I think that Jerry will restate guidance for 7.2 million K7s in Q4, and go on to say that, "that number may prove to be conservative." With the infrastructure problem resolved, I see no reason why AMD can not exceed the 7.2 million number. Q4 is going to be GREAT! Q1 is going to be even better. Agreed. Full Infrastructure support was the big news. And this positive change has been overlooked. Despite Intel's machinations, a glut of P3 motherboards forced it on the Taiwanese. Go to pricewatch and compare TBird Motherboard prices with Coppermine motherboard prices. That is the clincher on demand. If Athlon demand had really fallen so much, how could VIA and motherboard makers continue to get such higher prices? Compare with Slot A prices. There is a $27 spread on the lowest price, and even greater if you average the lowest few of each. Best Socket A price (check duron boards) $86 Best Slot A price (check athlon boards) $59 Best P3 133MHz bus price $59 Best Celeron price $39!!!!! The implication is clear- demand relative to supply for socket A motherboards is higher than the rest. Whether the premium is being skimmed by Via or the motherboard maker is irrelevant. The recent news (from a couple of analysts reports, and from dean kent's oct update) that enough socket A motherboards will be available in Q4 for is the most significant we have had for AMD. And it hasn't gotten much press.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (12909)	10/11/2000 1:11:13 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Pravin: "I think that Jerry will restate guidance for 7.2 million K7s in Q4, and go on to say that, "that number may prove to be conservative." With the infrastructure problem resolved, I see no reason why AMD can not exceed the 7.2 million number. Q4 is going to be GREAT! Q1 is going to be even better." Comment: There has not been one shred of concrete evidence presented anywhere to suggest any departure from what you have posted...In fact, if anything, the ongoing painful experiences being encountered by its primary competitor would support the notion that the 7.2 million Athys for Q4 might prove low...