Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (1823)	10/11/2000 2:52:09 PM
From: keokalani'nui	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

As recently as 1999, an analyst from a WS firm described Biogen as having one of the, if not the, deepest pipelines in the industry. That's not just a broad but also a bold statement, considering the comparative set would obviously include dna and amgn! Although any small investor could have gone to the 10-k and wondered what they were talking about, in the end they would have likely been persuaded by the recommender's aura of breathlessness, sophistication and status. It's a shame that happens sometimes. In fairness to analysts and ourselves, it seems to me to be a human truism that--in biotechnology in particular--by the time you feel comfortable recommending a stock to someone it has almost always lost its valuation advantage. With Biogen and BCHE, at these prices, one could do a lot worse. Still, there is just not the same tension as when buying the stock of companies that might as well report Proceeds From Sale of Common Stock as gross revenue and expense the whole amount immediately. That's my problem...I know better, but can't help myself. --Wilder

To: Biomaven who wrote (1823)	10/11/2000 3:32:05 PM
From: Mark Bong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<Can't understand why BGEN hasn't been busier in-licensing a late-stage candidate or munching someone over the last year since the unfortunate demise of their CD40L drug. Big mistake in my view.> Peter, during the CC, Jim Mullen stated that he is in the processing of negotiating another late stage product licensing deal. He indicated that this deal should be inked by the end of December or early next year at the latest. He also indicated that they are aggressively looking for other deals and will not stop looking for the foreseeable future. <Big mistake in my view.> I agree. My guess is that the transition from the Jim Vincent era to that of Jim Mullen created some internal political issues that affected their focus on the external parts of their business. Jim Vincent should have been more aggressive when deals could be had for lower costs and less competition. Now, they may have to pay more for licensing deals. In any event, it appears that Mullen understands this issue and is moving forward to resolve it in an aggressive manner. An interesting note on CNBC this morning, Jim was asked if BGEN was a buyout candidate because of their low stock price. His answer was not a definitive no. As I recall, he indicated that that could be an issue, but that most pharmaceutical and biotech deals are friendly deals. The buyout possibility should put a floor on the stock price. If BGEN does not show growth from internal pipelines and in-licensing deals, then a buyout will be inevitable.