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To: Probart who wrote (1043)10/11/2000 4:25:08 PM
From: Mark S.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1226
 
Place Your Bet on DSL

Neil Strother,Managing Editor
ZDNet AnchorDesk

It's hard to ignore the playoff baseball fever around here. Mariners vs. Yankees. Big stuff.
Even Associate Editor Chris Albrecht, a self-described non-fan, has caught it. His prediction:
Yanks sweep.

Here's another prediction that's hard to ignore: Worldwide DSL subscribers will grow from 4.5
million this year to a whopping 64.7 million by 2004, according to Cahners In-Stat Group. Click
for more. Next year alone, DSL providers will sign up 7.7 million new subscribers, increasing
new accounts by 71% over this year.

And the growth won't fizzle anytime soon. Though cable modem, wireless and satellite
services are strong competitors, DSL providers are well-positioned to finish first, In-Stat says.

DSL will get a boost from new developments such as:

Modems with multiple ports for access to a single line
Falling modem prices and declining monthly service charges as low as $29.95
A massive marketing push from telcos
SHDSL (Symmetric High Bit Rate DSL) -- allowing for 20% greater customer reach than
Symmetric DSL -- should be standardized in early 2001
New line-sharing mandate will allow competitive carriers to dramatically reduce costs
After SHDSL and VDSL (Very High Speed DSL) standards are adopted, customers will have
as many as nine DSL flavors to choose from. ADSL, for instance, is designed for consumers
who want video on demand, home shopping and Internet access. SDSL, noted for
high-speed remote access to servers and LANs, appeals most to small businesses.

But before DSL goes mainstream, providers face several hurdles, In-Stat says:

Persuading consumers to buy modems and pay $10 or more extra per month
Extending DSL's reach beyond the current 18,000 feet from the central office
Overcoming limitations of Digital Loop Carriers -- transmission platforms used in rural areas
that can't support ADSL
Bank on DSL providers triumphing over those challenges, says In-Stat senior analyst Mike
Lowe.

Telcos already have ambitious DSL goals. SBC aims to make it available to 80% of its
customers by the end of 2001. Several others have partnered with content providers to attract
more customers. These developments could soon put DSL providers at the top of the heap,
In-Stat says.

Now, about Chris' prediction. I disagree: Mariners in six