To: Dealer who wrote (7327 ) 10/11/2000 3:24:32 PM From: Dealer Respond to of 65232 GMST--Lehman Brothers Issues Comments on LU, YHOO, GMST and FHS By: Lehman Brothers 10/11/00 9:35:09 AM Morning Meeting: Visit the CNET Brokerage Center for daily reports from the top Wall Street analysts. Lucent Technologies(LU) 3 - Neutral LU’s New Hit, "Ooops I Did it Again..." Proving once again that just because a stock looks cheap it isnt necessarily cheap, Lucent Technologies announced that it was going to come up light in its fourth fiscal quarter ending September 30. Owning LU shares for the next few months, even at what we are expecting to be near fire-sale prices, is not likely to be rewarding in any way. The one caveat is that the potential valuation on Lucents Microelectronics business should act as significant floor for LU shares and therefore the downside from last nights close of $31 3/8 is probably no more than 50%. Quote Snapshot LU 21.94 -9.44 YHOO 68.88 -13.81 GMST 64.00 -7.38 FHS 16.81 -0.31 · Free Real-Time Quotes Enter symbol: · Symbol Lookup sponsored by More from CNET Investor Quotes delayed 20+ minutes Trade Now with our broker sponsors Yahoo!, Inc(YHOO) 3 - Neutral Solid 3Q Results, Cautious Outlook Yahoo! reported a solid 3Q, but a cautious near-term outlook will likely keep pressure on the stock. Revenues of $296MM (+8% Q/Q) exceeded the Street consensus by about $10MM. Cash EPS came in a penny above expectations. Exposure to dot-com "slowdown" is still concerning. 40% of Yahoo!’s revenue came from "pure play" dot-coms in the quarter. The tone of the conference call was quite cautious. Coupled with a revised outlook on sales/marketing suggests re-acceleration of revenue growth will only come at the cost of earnings. Even after the recent decline, the stock appears rich at 36x ’01 revenue and 150x earnings. We remain cautious on YHOO shares in front of several potentially low single-digit growth quarters. Gemstar-TV Guide Int’l(GMST) 1 - Buy On the Road with Gemstar Management - Highlights Yesterday we hosted Gemstar mgmt in NYC for a series of investor 1-on-1 meetings and luncheon. Believe company’s strategic objectives are in place. Expect key MSO signings later in Dec Q or early in CY01, including AOL; ComCast; BSkyB; and Star. On Thursday, GMST in conjunction with Thomson Electronics will unveil eBooks platform. 1st readers in magazine-size, to be shipping. Key publishers (Penguin, Simon & Schuster, Time Warner) and famous authors to be present (Ken Follett, Robert Ludlum, Patricia Cornwell, Ed McBain). Believe 150-person sales force not ready until late in Dec Q to fully ramp in selling EPG ads. Expect greater traction in ad revns when Nielsen Ratings provide GMST with key metrics for media buyers. Until then, we expect ads to remain in $2 MM range. Guidance for Qtr: anticipate that mgmt will provide guidance for business segments before Sept Qtr conf call in first half of Nov. Expect a full realign-ment of oper exp along lines of 4 new op divisions. Foundation Health Systems(FHS) 1 - Buy Repositioned for a Great Opportunity We are initiating on shares of Foundation Health Systems with a 1 Buy rating. This is a co. that stumbled after a large acq. in ’98, and has been trying to turn things around ever since. We believe that they are further along than many believe. The co., in our opinion, is much cleaner after a cycle of divestitures and market exits. Add’ly, FHS has adequate and sustainable market share in the regions it has chosen to remain. Also, we are impressed with new mgmt., a clearer operational focus and increased accountability. We do caveat that 1) there is a high level of provider capitation, 2) Florida and Arizona remain as areas in need of operational improvement and 3) there are certain customer concentration issues present. At current levels, shares of Foundation Health are trading at only 11x our 2001 EPS estimate of $1.52, and only 6x our 2001 EBITDA estimate. Our one-year target is $24, representing some 16 times our 2001 EPS estimate. If we do see AZ. turn and a FL. sale, we could see shares trade to $30. Disclosure Legend: A–Lehman Brothers Inc. managed or co-managed within the past three years a public offering of securities for this company. B-An employee of Lehman Brothers Inc. is a director of this company. C-Lehman Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company. G-The Lehman Brothers analyst who covers this company also has position in its securities. Key to Investment Rankings: This is a guide to expected total return (price performance plus dividend) relative to the total return of the stock’s local market over the next 12 months. 1 = Buy (expected to outperform the market by 15 or more percentage points); 2=Outperform (expected to outperform the market by 5-15 percentage points); 3=Neutral (expected to perform in line with the market, plus or minus 5 percentage points); 4=Underperform (expected to underperform the market by 5-15 percentage points); 5=Sell (expected to underperform the market by 15 or more percentage points); V=Venture (return over multiyear time frame consistent with venture capital; should only be held in a well-diversified portfolio). This document is for information purposes only. We do not represent that this information is complete or accurate. All opinions are subject to change. The securities mentioned may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries. This document has been prepared by Lehman Brothers Inc., Member SIPC, on behalf of Lehman Brothers International (Europe), which is regulated by the SFA. ©Lehman Brothers, Inc.