Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (32601)	10/11/2000 7:39:53 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi Dan Thanks for a thought provoking post. I can't say I agree, but you make interesting points. One point I find interesting: "Yes it will. And I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying conditions are less favorable now than they would be after an extended market rise." It seems to me that the time for a knock-out punch would be MORE likely at a time like this, even though we've been down nearly every day since 9/1. It is now when J6P investor is getting really tired and worn out wondering when the carnage will end. What better time for a capitulatory move in the market as when nerves are frayed as now. As an anecdotal aside, I know one J6P investor who got in the market back in March (felt he was missing out) and has just now thrown in the towel..."just couldn't take it any more". I think there's plenty more like him out there and we are ripe for more selling as more investors jump from the sinking ship. To capsulize; the bottom is near, but not here. When the media talks about the margin selling like back in April, then the probability for a reversal will be higher. I haven't heard anything about it yet except that margin is still at high levels as in the spring. Considering the NAZ is down over 1000 points since 9/1, I find it alarming that margin is so high. Just like in poker, if you can't meet the call... you gotta throw in your hand...fold. I don't think there has been enough yet. On April 4th for example, the $compx had a range of 3649-4283. The high the day before was 4572. Now that's fear. And the low of 3649 was good for a four day bounce to 4475. Of course we know there was alot more selling after that... A good hard 400 point drop off the cliff from here would do the trick, IMO. Looking at the weekly chart for COMPX, from the 98 lows where the the big bull started running to the highs of this year, the 62% retrace would fall somewhere around 2700-2800. Just about right. At that point, I will be agreeing with you that the probability for further declines will diminish greatly. BWDIK Regards, Eichler