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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scoobypax who wrote (60343)	10/11/2000 8:24:45 PM
From: Anthony@Pacific	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 122087

No I dont,, they will operate no differently,, I did an analysis on WBVN,,here it is.......There is a cieling as to how much it can grtow and the big supermarkets will compete and shave their profits down,,,besides who wants a a booger smeared , zit covered teens delivering 7-11 quality food to your door?/ Do you want someone else to pick your fruit or milk or bread or meat or vergetables? Great I can have all the canned Tuna and Dry cereal delivered to my home by a van..for a fee..woopy...but they cannot make money doing it. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=12176025 HERE IS ANALYSIS::: To: jraz1 who wrote (109) From: Anthony@Pacific Friday, Dec 3, 1999 8:13 AM ET Reply # of 247 An analysis why WEBVAN's potential is 100% limited to their labor & Why it will never work. Each Delivery Van vcan be driven by 1 person: Assuming each person is paid 20-30 bucks an hour for a 12 hour shift , Labor expense is $ 240.00-$ 360.00/ a day. Distance from each delivery is approx 10 miles ( Conservative estimate ) Each delivery person can make 3 deliveries an hour( again generous ) Deliveries in Any city they service is limited , lets say from 8am to 8 pm, thats 12 hours. The average Order is $ 100.00 lets say margins are a huge 20% 3 deliveries( $ 100.00 ) X 12 hours= $ 3600.00 GRoss revenues per day 20% X 3600.00 = $ $ 720.00 GRoss profit....( groceries run on a 2% margin typically ) Less Gas 36 deliveries( assumes each van canb carry all 36 loads and never have to back to distribution center) 360 miles/ 8 miles to gallon ( cit driving ) = 45 gallons. 45 gallons X 1.65/per day = 74.25 in gas per day Less labor of $ 240.00 to $ 360.00/ day Less INsurance( 5 bucks day ) Less labor involved to pick and a stuff each van ( $150.00 ) Less Misscellaneous ( ??? ) ------------------------------- $ 720.00 Gross profits per day <300.00 > average labor <75.00 Fuel > <150.00.00 > stuffing labor ------------------------ $ 195 gross profit s per day per driver... less :::::: < Rent insurance, administartaive > <advertsising ..and marketing > <-executive salaries > < Maintenece & accident expenses > BUt lest assume these other charges are zero and use the 195 as the #. 195 bucks per day, each driver can bring in a maximum of $ $ 71,175.00 per year in revenues. ( This doesnt factor any expenses except those related to each driver...... THe Compnay has a 8 Billion dolllar Mkt cap:::: To be justified , they need oh....lets say........in 1999, ineternet mania and all.......you need..pick a number $ 400,000,000 in sales which is 20 times sales, ( note not earnings ..20 time s sales ), they need 111,0000 drivers out there each day, salaries alone on 111,000 driver is more than they raise inb the ipo MY point is that WEBVAN's succes si 100% limited to the numnber of peopel they employ,, a veruy bad Business model,,each person has a maximum number og hours he can work , a max he can carry ,.,and max he can do in day, so their growth is 100% limited, Not to mention it is tiny niche market, maybe you use them once , or twice , unles you are a Multi billionaire, in silicon valley ,, you cannot grasp the fact that most americans wont use it. I will add more later..