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Pastimes : Trading the markets..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (450)	10/11/2000 11:55:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

Hi Bill, Perhaps my english was incorrect.You usually say " I wouldn't bet the farm".As a contrary statement I felt it was time to bet the farm. Of course that is a colloquial expression.I do believe that the market is oversold.I agree with your statement that it is an evolving selloff. Yesterday semi - equip stocks got creamed - today their relative strength was strong. BUT today fiber optic and communication chip stocks got creamed.So every sector gets flogged and then recovers.There hopefully will be a washout day when all sectors get slapped hard and that will signal a great bottom coming in. However margin call forced selling will wash out that bottom several days later. That is what I've been looking for with a vix spike.Too often at major bottoms like now - we (investors) freeze from fear.At a point when the greatest value exists ,we fail to take on possession of value.This is only second to the worst thing that an investor can do. The worst(because in my world it is the hardest) is to fight off greed and not sell at a top. This must be done so one has the capability of making purchases when the "blue light speacials ocurr". If we learn to balance selling at a top before the very top we can well afford to buy before the bottom - not the very bottom.I have found success trying not to be perfect.Forget the bottom 10% and the top 20% - give me just the in between 70 % and I'll over years, compound great wealth. I don't stay out of the market when great stocks get close to book value and I don't hold for the last ten points when the market is blowing off a top. I've never been so good as to catch the lowest dollar or the highest 5 dollars. I have never done well on the short term 1-3 dollar spreads either. I do hope to buttress and support other investors with the awareness that stocks are getting cheap and oversold.It is at these extreme points where support in coming to a contrarian opinion (over the years) has given me my best performance. I'm not a financial advisor, but I do like to invest my hard saved and earned money when the values are greatest.I neither believe in a market that is crashing to zero nor going to the moon. Quite frankly I think the big players like sector rotation, cause it burns the greedy and retains the players.Market crashes are bad for the industry.They also reduce the government tax intake and I think there are a lot of steakholders that don't want to butcher the lamb they just want to shear the wool. So we have a lot of noise out there about a business cycle that really won't slow down because rates went up 2.0 points from historical lows or have an inverted yield curve because our government has a surplus and is paying off the most expensive debt first. Rather we have noise pollution which is creating a great value in dynamic industries and companies. If we just chill out and accept a long term view we can see that oversold is a value. Buy value and sell excess. Be aggressive during bad times and conservative during good times and I think over the long run you'll end up very rich. I never think anybody should bet the farm.But one mans farm is another man's front driveway.His farm is bigger because he had better judgement and the nerve to risk it. JMHO and that with 1.99 at Starbucks will get you a coffee. I'm really trying to generate some value discussions.During Kahuna like events ,everyone gets shell shocked and quiet.This I believe to be the time we quite correctly focus the greatest on buying .We also should do more talking about selling at the next top. If done correctly ,all on your wonderful thread would prosper to a greater degree. Thanks for straightening up my loose ramblings. Bob