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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (2186)	10/12/2000 1:04:12 AM
From: Tom Kearney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Eugene - The AMD report was not too shabby either! Run rate puts them at sub 10 PE. Good thing this market is so rational! You pointed out to me a year and a half ago that LU's performance was unbelievably bad, and it has taken a while for the market to catch up. We've seen Intel give terrible guidance for years, and MOT, too. So, there's no surprises here (even tho I did bite at MOT this time). William had a long debate with someone a few weeks ago about how TELCO companies MUST keep spending just to keep up. Why did LU get creamed? TODAY analysts point out that LU hasn't kept up in their equipment purchases. wow We've been hearing that the chip market is collapsing, then IBM, one of the largest chip companies in the world by the way (they were still the biggest chip producer a few years ago, but surely Intel has passed them now, and maybe a few others), announces yesterday a $5B investment in a new plant, and announces today they can't keep up with demand for some of their chips. (Someone mentioned on the QCOM thread yesterday that IBM is QCOM's foundary.) Besides AMD, AMCC had a great report tonight. QCOM gets creamed today, probably due to the MOT announcement re: handsets, yet all along, QCOM has been saying that it is portable devices beyond PCS's that will drive 3g/CDMA sales. That's the reason QCOM sold the handset division. So, I think we're pretty on target. We see reports that more and more of the big funds now are 'swing trading', so I think this wild volitility has to be accepted and will be a permanent feature of the market and we need to include it in our strategy. It is a result of the communications explosion. Mainly we're seeing a day trading driven market; look at the depth of analysis expressed on this thread each day (yeah, I'm doing too). I think if we're just a little careful with margin, long term investing will pay off fine. The GLW pre-announce ought to make tomorrow more fun, no? All the best, Tom

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (2186)	10/12/2000 8:11:49 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Gene every time it appears the market is ready for a good day, another name-brand co comes out with a warning. And now the Mideast is heating up again. The problem with the opticals is that they sell to companies that are barely making any money. There is a realization now that the end is in sight for the huge rev gains these companies have been enjoying to date. Would you buy ATT and WCOM now? That is almost what you are doing, by buying opticals now. Look at QWEST- they had to buy a baby bell phone co to get adequate traffic on their huge fiber network. Victor