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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (4923)	10/12/2000 11:23:37 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

We are getting our bounce as measured by the NDX as this is the index I have been keying in on. While the DOW and SPX is down off of bank (C, JPM), and HD weakness, NDX is up 40 to NDX 3,140. DOW down 200+ with clear technical break and SPX down 15 after registering lower intraday lows this morning. We got a lowere low booked in NDX at 3,023 before reversing..NDX intraday high NDX 3,183... After our intraday low bounce yesterday of NDX 3,047 I stated in the archives that we would get this dead cat bounce to NDX 3,350 intraday and then head back down to NDX 2,750 area intraday before the basebuilding can begin going into November and 1st half of December... Anytime you get external events as we had this morning shortly after running hard north out of the blocks reversals can and will happen as fighting in the Middle East and suicide terrorist activity in Yemeni port of Aden provide the backdrop for point of least resistance and that is down... In light of this backdrop, NDX 3,350 intraday high may now be a lofty goal and we may turn right back down from here and any break of NDX 3,020 will accelerate the selling... Events happening fast as NDX now breakeven... EDIT: Back up +24 Ultimate target is NDX 2,750... Best regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (4923)	10/12/2000 9:04:07 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

What a day!! I had a root canal done. Joseph Leiberman came to my home town to trash it. The markets collapsed. We got hit by a bobby trapped row boat to one of our Missile carriers in Yemen. Home Depot disappointed. More Middle East tensions. Oil prices surge. I MADE A SMALL FORTUNE ON MY PROFUND ULTRA BEAR FUND TODAY! The MomentuMonkey Indicator is very bearish, but don't look for it to be updated on my webpage until tomorrow. Tomorrow will be very important to the markets. Can the US Dollar keep up its strong uptrend in the face of military action led by Bill Clinton?? Have interest rates bottomed??? Oil and interest rates don't mix. Either oil prices have to fall (probably not before the next OPEC meeting on November 12th) or interest rates have to rise (the more likely scenario.) Momentum is great...that is if you are a bear. It's accelerating on the downside. I told my dear brother to sell every NAZ stock he owns and most everything else except deep value stocks. Put the crash helmets on gentlemen! J.T. I'm no contrarian indicator, but my track record isn't perfect. On balance, I'm having on of my best years in the market. As to my model, check my thread and my webpage that I update on occation. It explains the MomenuMonkey Indicator pretty well. It's not good at levels of market prediction nor exact turning points. It is great for trend following. And I only track the S&P 500 index. There are value calculatons of theoritical value, but over the last few years, the momentum part of the equation has made more money.