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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (34674)	10/12/2000 8:18:18 AM
From: The IB Dude	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

I read a very interesting article in Fortune the other day and I thought I'd share it with the thread. Ed Kerschner, chief investment strategist of Paine Webber, was one of 3 investment strategists interviewed by Fortune and his thoughts on the present and long-term market are informative to say the least. Inflation, he declares, is a non-issue and not a threat to the market right now. He rightly points out that in the entire US economic history, there has been 6 inflationary periods and every one of them was a part and parcel of war. During such crises, with supply shifting towards war goods, consumer goods shortages led to an increase in price. Now, since times are different, we return back to normal inflation, which is about 2%. Ed also disagrees with that after a record setting expansion, a slow down in the economy is expected. He believes that as the information economy isnt as cyclical as the goods economy, the days of a recession nearly every 5 years maybe over. Although he says he doesn’t really know what drives the cycle but it does seem to be longer by evidence of the fact that we have had one recession in what will soon be 20 years. The future looks bright but not in an extraordinary kind of way. Earnings will be in the high single digits area, inflation will remain low, growth steady and a decent return of 8% on the S&P 500 for the next two years. In response to any pessimistic forecasts he answers " I swear we're a nation of grandmothers worrying that something has to go wrong. Why can't we accept that things are finally working?" I for one agree with him and bar any unexpected non-economic factors like war or political instability, the market looks set to continue its uninterrupted growth for a long time to come. Regards Zain

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (34674)	10/12/2000 11:32:25 AM
From: Getcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Dear Ike -- Long time since I have followed or posted ... What has me back, probably for a very short stint again (due only to time constraints, as your thread is and has always been a wonderful source of ideas and information exchanges), is the problems seen in the technology markets that have really come to fruition this past month ... problems were visible well before the regular Tech Crisis Month known by all to occur almost every September (gee ... why don't we trade it as it is always so volatile! Instead we watch it with a bowl of popcorn like it was a Monday Night Football game ... or a World Cup Soccer Match for you Ike!). Well ... it is now quite clear that we are standing on thin ice in the US Markets as we have breached several support levels on the SPX and, from my vantage point, are approaching two very weak support levels that could allows us to fall back down to planet Earth in the markets. Ike ... I am not trying to be a doom and gloom man here (I am fully invested!!! I cannot afford to be!!!), I simply am looking at a picture with what I feel are appropriate glasses ... so I ask you ... Am I seeing 20/20 here Ike? Would be most grateful for your view ... I will also be looking back over the past 100 posts to follows others thoughts ... I See my good friend Tim Lamb is still positing ... hope others have remained on board and faithful like Tim and yourself. Getcher