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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (125922)	10/12/2000 1:58:51 AM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1579785

My disappointment in the ASP's is due to how it shows the PC market in gereral. IMO, lower ASP's shows the market is weak enough to force AMD to go lower in prices than they wanted to. chic, Why do you think it shows that the PC market is weak? You are assuming that AMD's low ASPs are due to a soft PC market. But its just as plausible that they were lowered purposely to steal sales from Intel? I don't think chip sales were ever as strong as Intel's claims of capacity constraints would have indicated. Way back in May I was questioning that whole thesis because even then, Intel and AMD were both cutting prices. You don't cut prices on a commodity when there is a shortage. As for the future, AMD, if it wants to continue to gain market share, will have to keep lowering prices in order to steal more sales in the low end and middle but they will have the luxury of owning the high end, where the highest ASPs are, for at least a year. In addition any corporate sales will be gravy. Its the best possible scenario for AMD. Just got done listening to the CC. Seems more positive than I expected. I think this is due to low expectations. Apparently, the public had thought AMD had been crushed, so meeting estimates may be seen as a big positive. Its more positive because Sanders is positive...its one element of his multi talented personality, and that's why I wanted him and not Ruiz to run the CC. He's a toned down niceguy. <g> The man loves what he's doing and loves kicking butt. Having said that, the earnings report was good, not blowout....but I think that that will be okay. The investors have been fed a steady gruel of depressing news. Sanders deflected that by saying things are good, more competitive, but still good. Its a very believable argument. If he had said sales were over the top, I don't think many would have believed him. He's a wily old fox. Given the beating the stock has taken, we may be headed up a little if the general market can bounce. If the Naz keeps going lower, these numbers mean nothing IMO. The Naz may go lower but these numbers do mean something. Take P/Es for an example, they have been and always will be important...nice segue into your latest rant, huh? However P/E valuation is not as important to the tech stocks as they are to the NYSE and AMEX stocks. Why is that? Because tech stocks have the possibility of incredible future earnings.....so they are permitted higher valuations even when the company is not profitable......so long as the growth potential is there and is being realized by the company. When I first started in the stock market 3 years ago, my reaction to some of the astronomical P/Es was similar to yours, and when I saw the internet bubble begin to develop, I concluded that these were the markets of the damned. But let me point out something, the dot coms were allowed to have incredible valuations for a while but when they did not come through either with profits or accelerating sequential revenue growth, they were hammered by the same markets that boosted them up in the first place. There are net stocks that were trading at $162 that now trade at $6. The market giveth and the market taketh away. Numbers mean everything to the markets but interpretations vary from sector to sector. Three years ago I thought the markets were irrational, stupid, ineffectual and completely ruled by fear and greed. Three years later, I realize that some of that's true but I have also learned there is whole lot more to the story then that, and the story is incredibly fascinating....at least to me. ted