SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: horsegirl48 who wrote (7512)10/12/2000 7:14:02 AM
From: Clappy  Respond to of 65232
 
Thanks HG. <eom>

-Clappy



To: horsegirl48 who wrote (7512)10/12/2000 7:30:53 AM
From: sam  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
Agenda, agenda, agenda. A number of these letter writers are clearly short the market (as are some of the major hedge funds)...so I suppose they have a vested interest in wanting the market to continue to go down. Just as those long want it to turn back up right here. In addition, many so-called professionals are bitter that technology had such a great run and that fundamentals were being "ignored" for so long. Without them, for the most part. They point to the internet bubble as proof that fundamentals were entirely out the window last year...and they have a very valid point in many cases. As such, they desperately want the fast money and momo crowd to get bitten by the bear. Every time the market drops the same rhetoric reappears. The guys on the NYSE floor cannot help expressing their glee that the Nasdaq is tumbling...just as they try to sell us on their own crap. Consumer cyclicals, et. al. The "bargains." The only tech they know even the slightest about are second-rate former market leaders like T, LU and IBM. Talk about being outta touch. ;) This is not to say either that the Nasdaq has double bottomed...or that it has further to go (though the guy on CNBC this morning claiming the Nasdaq is going to 2000 is being a bit fantastical imo). These guys -- in toto -- control a heck of a lot of capital. Lots will depend imo on earnings (who says fundamentals don't matter ;), the election and liquidity. All this said, my personal view is that if we rally strongly before end of year then next year will be rough...and, conversely, if we struggle for the rest of the year next year will be a banner year. bwdik



To: horsegirl48 who wrote (7512)10/12/2000 8:36:28 AM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Bob B. says the big MOABO is going to be here soon enough and those who can wait will be set for life.

On the one hand I don't totally disagree w/ Bob B. OTOH I have a few problems w/ his scenario. First is the timing. I currently (remember, all scenarios are "written on water") believe the capitulation phase will occur sooner than he does. He's more than a little vague w/ his timing, but as best I can gather his capitulation seems to be somewhere in '01 or '02, while I believe 1H of '01.

The second difference is the depth of the decline of the capitulation phase. I've heard numbers such as a 70% decline or Naz at 1700 attributed to him. I'm not sure if these numbers are valid, since I don't personally subscribe to his newsletter, but IMO they are too sever.

A third difference (that is related to the second) concerns the best strategy to take advantage of the volatility associated w/ the bear correction. His approach seems to be to wait until the capitulation (MOABO) and then buy. I prefer to selectively accumulate near the bottoms of the dips caused by the denial and fear (his anxiety) phases as well. You must realize, he believes in diversification - something like no more than ~ 4.5% in any one position. I OTOH am seeking those few companies that'll be growing 75 - 100% per year (NTAP, SEBL, etc. - you know the list). If you wait a year or more to begin the accumulation of these fast growers, even though their price has been depressed in the capitulation phase (remember in my scenario this phase is less sever), the price will still be higher because of the rapid growth. The fact that the capital gains clock starts ticking earlier is just an added benefit.

BWDIK

lurqer



To: horsegirl48 who wrote (7512)10/12/2000 9:14:56 AM
From: imdchamps  Respond to of 65232
 
Hi Horsegirl,

I listen to Brinker often; can't say I agree with style ie. timing the market; but he has a huge following who will jump in and out on his words. If he says its time to buy, probably is.

Don C