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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (32696)	10/12/2000 11:29:22 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 42787

Good look on the Yahoo chart. thanks

To: Paul Shread who wrote (32696)	10/12/2000 1:53:26 PM
From: adcpres	Respond to of 42787

Paul, the NASDAQ held across the 1999 peak yesterday but also reached it yesterday and crossed today. This is only ONE day's worth of data -- not enough to form any conclusions. Also, it looks to me that we could have formed a double top and presently undergoing a break to the down side. One could also argue that this is the bottom of a rise to form a triple top. One could also argue several other possibilities. The point I am trying to make is no one can know for sure until the data is in(20:20 hindsight). All you can do is assign probabilities to the various possibilities given past behaviors and place your bets accordingly. Mathematically, it is very dangerous to extrapolate the behavior of a data set(its graph) from past known data unless that data set is well behaved. Market data is not well behaved as it has a lot of random components to it. To extrapolate a data set to BEST guess the future behavior of the data requires extensive calculation of its higher order derivatives to get a fit. The better the fit desired, the larger the number of higher order derivatives that need to be computed as for example in a least squares analysis to get the coefficients in what is called a Taylor's Series Expansion. However, any analysis requires truncation of the series(determined by the highest order derivative computed) which creates uncertainty further out in time. In my opinion this is a futile endeavor and one's only hope is to assign probabilities to various outcomes, take your best guess based on these probabilities, and be ready in cash to go LONG or SHORT when the market makes its move. It is interesting to get various takes on the future outcome from you and others and compare it to my own but in the final analysis, the market will do what it damn well pleases and one of us will be lucky enough to have guessed it correctly and be given the distinction as the TA guru for this round. Good luck. GH PS Still looking to short something. Just might throw in the towel here and go outside and finish staining the house since it is nice an warm today.