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To: foundation who wrote (83313)	10/12/2000 1:35:12 PM
From: Labrador	Respond to of 152472

Well, just broke down and bought some more shares. I'm thinking 3G and China. Time to just put those certificates in the vault [again].

To: foundation who wrote (83313)	10/12/2000 1:37:10 PM
From: Cooters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

ANALYSIS-Mobile phone sales growth slowdown seen in 2001 --From AOL.-- Cooters HELSINKI, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The global mobile phone market is starting to slow down after several quarters of phenomenal growth, according to analysts and comments this week from U.S. technology group Motorola Inc <MOT.N>. On Wednesday Motorola, the world's second biggest mobile phone maker, said it expected lower worldwide industry cellphone sales growth this year and next, sending shivers down the spines of tech-focused investors. It was the first of the Big Three mobile phone companies to report Q3 earnings and make projections for next year. Sweden's Ericsson <LMEb.ST> comes on October 20, with Finland's Nokia Oyj Abp <NOK1V.HE> on October 26. Motorola gave a conservative estimate of 525-575 million global handset sales for 2001, down from a previously more aggressive estimate of 600-650 million. Analysts agreed this was more realistic. "We feel the market is quite healthy and will grow next year but it's impossible to forever grow at around 50 percent," said Pekka Tynkkunen, analyst at Finnish brokerage Evli Securities. Evli Securities expects worldwide mobile phone unit sales to hit 563 million units in 2001, up from 424 million this year and 284 million last year. Both Nokia, the world's leading mobile phone maker, and Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson, the third biggest cellphone maker, declined to comment on the industry outlook. HUGE GROWTH COMING TO AN END? Motorola's forecasts signal that the era of rising growth in the number of people signing up for subscriptions and thus buying mobile phones, which has led to big earnings for the likes of Nokia and operator Vodafone <VOD.L>, may be ending. Herschel Shosteck, head of U.S. wireless consulting firm Herschel Shosteck Associates said Motorola's comments fit his view that subscriber growth would peak in 2000 or 2001. The news pushed Nokia, Ericsson and other handset makers' stocks sharply into the red on Wednesday and helped slice almost 20 percent off Motorola's share price, which was also hit by cuts in its earnings estimates for this year and next. On Thursday some cellphone makers were still under pressure. While Motorola, a bellwether for the sector, was the last of the Big Three mobile phone makers to trim worldwide industry estimates for 2000, it was the only one to give 2001 forecasts. Nokia declined to comment on next year's figures but said in July that it expected the global mobile phone subscriber base to exceed one billion in 2002, up from 570 million in mid-2000. Analysts said it was inevitable that new subscriber growth rates, especially in Europe where mobile phone usage is rising sharply and has reached penetration of over 60 percent in some countries like Sweden and Finland, would ease at some point. LOWER 2001 ESTIMATES MAY HURT PROFITS Analysts said they were not concerned about this year's revision but they were worried about next year's outlook and whether that would start to bite into profits for Nokia. Nokia, the world's most profitable mobile phone maker, had built up a reputation for releasing one fantastic set of figures after another. But it stunned investors in July by warning that Q3 profits would be lower than those of the second quarter due to delays in new phone models and a temporary slowdown in consumer demand. Analysts said Motorola's comments about sales for Internet-enabled mobile phones were a cause for concern in the short-term and showed that the much hyped sales of Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) phones were not going well. If it takes too long for sales of Global Packet Radio Service, or GPRS, phones -- which are due for launch from the fourth quarter -- to whet consumers' appetite in Europe then some mobile phone makers could find it hard next year to keep up high profits and margins, they said. What is key for cellphone makers is not the slowdown in phones sold but their ability to keep prices high -- something Nokia is a pastmaster in, they said. Fears earlier this year that shortages of components would hold back sales are receding, however, as phone manufacturers are better at planning and component supplies have improved. NOKIA'S POSITION STILL SEEN UNCHALLENGED Even negative comments from Motorola should not be something that will shake Nokia's leadership position, at least in the short term, analysts said. They agreed that Motorola's difficulties in the European mobile phone market were exacerbated by Nokia's aggressive move to carve out more market share. Motorola has also suffered by its decision, like Ericsson, to focus on profitability rather than market share. Analysts said they believed Nokia would emerge as a clear winner in Q3 with a significant gain in market share. Nokia's global market share in Q2 stood at 27.5 percent, Motorola's at 15.6 percent and Ericsson's at 10.3 percent, according to independent industry research group Dataquest. Nokia's innovative and broad product portfolio, especially in the crucial mass-market handsets, has insulated it against the vagaries of the market in contrast to its rivals. 13:19 10-12-00