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To: fut_trade who wrote (557)	10/12/2000 2:27:45 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8925

Looks like quite a bit of support around 100.

To: fut_trade who wrote (557)	10/12/2000 9:15:47 PM
From: Teresa Lo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8925

SPX: Nice chart...and I just had this wicked thought. What if they never changed the stocks in this average, and never replace the losers with the latest, largest market capitalization ones, the default momo stocks? Would the market's reputation of "always going up in the long run" be "true"? Teresa

To: fut_trade who wrote (557)	10/12/2000 11:21:42 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Respond to of 8925

Peter, Well that certainly covers a lot of territory <gg>. I thought I would throw in an observation from a monthly SPX chart and table I keep going back to the 1970s. On a log plot, today's low crossed the 20 period moving average of monthly lows for the first time since 1994, by a mere .11%. In 1994 the monthly low dipped below the average in five months, the worst being 1.18% in December. In October 1998, the low missed hitting the average by one point and then SPX rebounded. The last time there was a serious penetration of the average was in 1990, where the lows were below average for six consecutive months, the lowest being 8.15% in October. In the infamous crash of 1987 the low dove 14.51% below average, and took 5 months to climb above it, followed by a couple more small dips below. A four month, worst case 3.28% dip occurred in 1984, and an extended dip in late 1981 to early 1982 went as low as 13.39% below. That's the worst since 1974 when things got really ugly, as low as down 32% in September and October. If the month were to close at today's close, it would be 3.43% below the 20 period average of closing. The worst month in 1994 was 1.83%, and the worst in 1990 was 8.68%. the 1987 crash took the SPX close 13.72% below the average, so another 10% from here would put us in that league. A failed retest of the October 1999 low would about do it. I don't think it helps predict anything, but it does give us a little more than the eyeball measure of how this decline stacks up against others in the last few decades visible on your chart. Dan