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To: JRI who wrote (40697)	10/12/2000 3:58:59 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 77399

JR, on the contrary, there are lots of worries for Greenspan. He's piloting the Corcorde and has to land it on a 100 ft runway. The risks you describe are certainly real. But there is also significant risk on the other side, with major capacity constraints in various industries, particularly energy. My guess is that, similar to earlier where Greenspan waited for concrete inflationary evidence before he raised rates, he'll wait for concrete evidence of a slowdown before he cuts rates. It worked on the way up even though a lot of people were sharply critical of those efforts. We'll see if it works on the way down (if indeed that's what he's thinking about).