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To: Danny who wrote (110367)10/12/2000 9:20:58 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Danny: "tech has been in a bear market for 6 months"

I completely disagree. Tech has been correcting from extended valuations. This morning the bear came knocking. Hopes for a soft landing are now unrealistic. A bear can take us down another 25-30% from here and techs will be worst hit. Capital for bs no-profit concept stocks will dry up and technology stocks will be seen for what they are -- cyclical and absurdly over-valued right now, today. AMD, for example, complains about a pe of 10 -- but 10 is about right for a cyclical stock. As their numbers fall apart over the next few months, they will their profitability and hence their stock price will continue to drop. There is nothing to stop the Naz from doing the unthinkable -- correcting 50-60% from the peaks established earlier this year -- albeit with lots of fake-out rallies. That, my friend, is the difference between a bear market and a correction IMO. Good luck.



To: Danny who wrote (110367)10/12/2000 10:54:29 PM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Danny don't forget that the Fed's rate hikes still have not all been worked into the economy yet. The latter hikes are still working their way in. This will slow things.

And the wall street analysts soon are going to start downgrading a lot of co's for Q4 and 2001 based on the inevitable downward adjustments to earnings estimates for Q4 and 2001. Most sectors will get downgraded, esp tech sectors.

Victor