To: Jordan Levitt who wrote (83424 ) 10/13/2000 12:50:33 AM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 152472 <I in no way can believe that the price of oil, or interest rates for that matter, can do any meaningful degree have an impact on the world wide adoption of cellular for voice and data communication. > Since I quit work, I use phones not much at all, though the ADSL line runs hot all day every day. I have a cellphone, as does nearly everyone I know. When working, I was using a cellphone flat out. Timely communication is vital in the business world. The wealth effect is bad for Q! because people won't make many phone calls if they are lazing around on a golf course, so revenues for service providers are less and they'll build out less infrastructure, upgrade it more slowly, etc. The Korean economic shambles of 1998 showed what happens on a national scale. Just like me, when they were going on 747s as tourists, they took cameras but didn't make cellphone calls. When the crunch came, the trips were cancelled, they went back to work, bought cellphones flat out and made LOTS of calls to try to get an income. Electronics and spectrum are weightless [almost] so economic activity can be generated through them without buying expensive oil, car insurance, air fares etc as happens in the industrial economy. So I reckon that high-priced oil not only encourages cellphone use [and CDMA development] but makes it essential for people to earn a living. Cellphones are so cheap and so are minutes that people can put them at the top of their buying list without doing too much damage. I suppose it will take a few months for people to figure out that QUALCOMM's profits are continuing to roar ahead while other companies, especially in the industrial age economy, are paying through the nose for oil and oil-derived products such as steel, tyres, roads and airplane rides and consumption will drop. Mqurice PS: Only 6 hours left on Friday 13th, Full Moon and all looks great! Must be going to be a big stock market recovery. Friday 13th now started in the USA. Any disasters?