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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (76246)	10/13/2000 8:05:06 AM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Lose confidence? How about lost irrationality? This morning the technicals and mood are getting awfully intriguing now to get back into equities other than defensives and oil. Index Put/Call ratio is at levels that are compelling, PEG ratios of tech stocks are at levels not seen in a long time. Even hard landing growth rates are being discounted. Semiconductors, PC's, telco equipment companies are at PEG's of 1. This is even a discount to S&P PEG. While I am largely in drillers and now even gold, the climactic selling precipitated by the middle east has a bottomish feel to it. Over the last couple weeks the order flow has been on the sell side, with significant selling of the bid-wanted type. The order flow is beginning to slide toward the buy side. The bid wanted selling has abated over the past 3 days. There is still some short selling which is at a level which is even positive. Complacency seems to have ended. Index Put/Call ratio now is sufficiently negative to think its time to get back in the water. Absent the unpredictable, energy stocks could pause as defensive money flows back toward tech. While the fundamentals look fabulous for the drillers, I would not be buying but on significant pullbacks. If the energy feeding frenzy goes on for more than another few days, I may indeed be a seller on a trade. If one is a proponent of global meltdown, financial collapse and apocalyptic days ahead then market indications are irrelevant. I am suggesting that negative sentiment looks very compelling to me for the near turn if not quite already on this Friday the 13th. But it DOES seem an appropriate day to hit bottom. MT

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (76246)	10/13/2000 9:47:13 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Crudele's piece illustrates part of why a grinding bear may be here, with countertrend rallies. It is a measure of how far our politics have declined to hear it said (and, I expect, widely believed) that since moral hazard (here, injections of happy juice by the national nanny) is already rampant, equity and ST goals dictate more of it as a cure! The harder gov't fights ongoing and still-to-come financial asset deflation and the inevitable economic dislocations accompanying it, the more protracted and painful will be the necessary structural and psychological adjustment. There is accordingly a case for gold, but to me the NAZ has to fall first, absent a war or oil embargo. Then the dollar will get hit, and I think only then will gold rise much and for long. So I suspect today or next week will more likely call for seizing short term buying opps in tech, and I'm waiting on today's tape to tell me if so, and what.