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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (59769)	10/13/2000 10:35:46 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116760

07:33am EDT 13-Oct-00 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown (G. Albino/T. Elliott) AEM ABX North American Precious Metal Equities - 3Q00 Earnings Preview Albino, George V. (416) 682-8177 10/12/2000 Elliott, Thomas 416-682-8140 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGNICO-EAGLE MINES LIMITED (AEM) "BUY" BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION (ABX) "BUY" BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD COMPANY (BMG) "MKT. PERFORM" GOLDCORP INC. (GG.A) "BUY" HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY (HM) "MKT. PERFORM" KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION (KGC) "MKT. PERFORM" MERIDIAN GOLD INC. (MDG) "BUY" NEWMONT MINING CORPORATION (NEM) "MKT. PERFORM" PLACER DOME INC. (PDG) "BUY" STILLWATER MINING COMPANY (SWC) "BUY" TECK CORPORATION (TEK.B) "BUY" North American Precious Metal Equities - 3Q00 Earnings Preview ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52-WK Earnings Per Share FY Price Price 3-5 Yr Est. Ticker End 10/12/2000 Range 1999 2000 2001 Growth Chg? AEM 12 5.75 9-5 (0.28)A (0.06) 0.07 Y ABX 12 14.75 22-14 0.85A 0.82 0.67 -15% N BMG 12 1.69 4-1 (0.55)A (0.14)P (0.16) Y GG.A 12 6.25 8-4 0.15A 0.04 0.47 29% N HM 12 4.88 10-4 0.02A 0.01 0.03 52% Y KGC 12 0.56 3- (0.82)A (0.14) (0.12) Y MDG 12 5.69 8-5 (0.19)A 0.48P 0.58P Y NEM 12 15.88 28-14 0.15A 0.21P 0.59P 69% Y PDG 12 8.50 15-8 0.11A 0.35P 0.42P 35% Y SWC 12 26.25 51-19 1.01A 1.79P 2.51P 78% Y TEK.B 12 10.60 15-8 0.44A 0.98P 1.49P 42% Y ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: * Gold traded in a narrow $15 per ounce range during the quarter, exhibiting a general downtrend for the bulk of this period. A sharp rally in the closing days provided some encouragement. * The strength of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies continued to be a key factor during the period. Coordinated intervention by the G7 countries in support the Euro (and other currencies) in late September touched off gold's late-month move. * Nonetheless, we believe slightly lower average gold and silver prices quarter-over-quarter will probably result in lower earnings for unhedged, highly-geared gold producers. Conversely, we are forecasting improvements in year-over-year results due to a strengthened gold price over this period. * Improved copper and zinc prices bode well for base metal producer Teck and (to lesser degree) Placer Dome and Newmont, in our opinion. Operational issues may overshadow continued strength in platinum and palladium realizations for Stillwater Mining. * Our preferred BUY-rated stocks remain Barrick Gold and Placer Dome amongst the senior gold producers, Agnico-Eagle, Goldcorp, and Meridian Gold within the intermediates, and Stillwater and Teck Corporation outside of the pure gold arena. * Look for details in our forthcoming report "North American Precious Metal Equities 3Q00 Earnings Preview" DETAILS: The following tables illustrate our forecasts for metal prices, company earnings, and our ratings and targets. Table 1: Precious Metal Price Forecasts (US$/oz.) 1999A 2000E 2001E 2002E Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Gold 278.89 289.95 281.00 295.00 284.00 290.00 293.00 Silver 5.21 5.15 5.02 5.25 5.00 5.20 5.00 Palladium 358.50 590.00 645.00 525.00 575.00 500.00 500.00 Platinum 377.10 514.90 537.00 515.00 531.00 510.00 510.00 Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown estimates Table 2: 3Q00 Earnings Estimates and Reporting Dates Expected 3Q00 Conference Call Reporting DBS Estimate Consensus Information Company Name Date 3Q00 2000 3Q00 2000 Date Time (EDT) Agnico-Eagle 26-Oct (0.02) (0.06) (0.02) (0.08) Barrick 19-Oct 0.22 0.82 0.22 0.82 19-Oct 9:30 AM Battle Mountain w26-Oct (0.04) (0.14) (0.03) (0.10) Goldcorp w20-Nov 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.08 Homestake 31-Oct (0.02) 0.01 (0.01) (0.02) 1-Nov 11:00 AM Kinross 25-Oct (0.03) (0.15) (0.02) (0.10) Meridian 19-Oct 0.13 0.48 0.13 0.49 Newmont 25-Oct 0.04 0.21 0.15 0.40 25-Oct 2:00 PM Placer Dome 23-Oct 0.05 0.35 0.07 0.39 24-Oct 1:00 PM Stillwater 17-Oct 0.28 1.79 0.40 1.71 17-Oct 12:00 PM Teck 25-Oct 0.28 0.95 0.20 0.64 26-Oct 2:00 PM Source: First Call, Company Figures, and Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown estimates. Consensus estimates as of October 2, 2000. Table 3: Ratings and Target Prices Prior Current Close Target Target Price Company Name Ticker Exchange Recommendation Price Price 9-Oct Return Agnico-Eagle AEM NYSE Buy 7 1/2 7 7/8 5 3/4 37% Barrick ABX NYSE Buy 21 21 14 7/16 45% Battle Mountain BMG NYSE Market Perform 2 1/4 2 1/8 1 5/8 30% Goldcorp GGa NYSE Buy 8 1/2 8 1/2 6 1/2 31% Homestake HM NYSE Market Perform 6 3/4 6 3/4 4 3/4 42% Kinross KGC NYSE Market Perform 1 7/8 9/16 56% Meridian MDG NYSE Buy 8 1/2 8 1/2 5 7/8 45% Newmont NEM NYSE Market Perform 22 21 15 9/16 35% Placer Dome PDG NYSE Buy 11 1/4 11 1/4 8 9/16 31% Stillwater SWC AMEX Buy 37.50 36.00 27.19 32% Teck TEKb TSE Buy 15.25 15.25 10.65 43% Source: Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown estimates and Reuters Additional Compliance Imformation Company Ticker Price Rating Disclosure Aurizon Mines ARZ-TSE $ 0.66 NO RECOMMENDATION Billiton BLT-LSE 246 1/4 MARKET PERFORM Gold Fields Limited GOLD-NASDAQ $ 3 2/16 NO RECOMMENDATION « North American Palladium PDL-TSE $ 9.50 NO RECOMMENDATION Information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions, estimates, and projections constitute our judgement and are subject to change without notice. This publication is provided to you for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial instrument. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., DB Alex. Brown LLC., and their affiliates worldwide, may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as advisor or lender to such issuer. Transactions should be executed through a Deutsche Bank entity in the client's home jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by law. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., and DB Alex. Brown LLC., are members of NYSE and NASD. Copyright 2000 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., and DB Alex. Brown LLC. In the U.S. this report may be distributed either by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., or DB Alex. Brown LLC. Interested parties are advised to contact the U.S. entity they currently deal with, or the U.S. entity that has distributed this report to them. DAK