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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (13699)	10/13/2000 12:28:57 PM
From: boris_a	Respond to of 275872

Kash, did you forget my second question? Regards, Boris

To: kash johal who wrote (13699)	10/13/2000 12:32:26 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, since Brookdale isn't scheduled until Q3, will there be enough RIMMs for the number of processors you are projecting? Sure, Intel may be able to make that many P4s, but where will the memory come from?

To: kash johal who wrote (13699)	10/13/2000 1:09:37 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 275872

Kash, <Clearly Q1 will be low millions of units - say 2M units.> That sounds pretty aggressive since there are unlikely to be more than a hundred thousand units this Q. <I think they will be chipset limited till Q2.> Looks like P4 is going to be chipset limited until Brookdale ramps in Q3. <SO amd will do ok till Q1, but Q2 and on it gets harder and harder.> You estimate only 4Mu in Q2 and you expect that to be problem for AMD? My guess is the CPU biz will be at 40+Mu quarterly run-rate in Q2 2001. And, Intel would be moving as many P4s to business segment as it can to minimize any inroads from AMD. And with PIII stuck at 1 or 1.13G, I would doubt if Intel can afford to flood the consumer market with P4s to hurt AMD. I would push AMD's marketshare growth window out by at least one quarter, if not two. It could be even better if AMD executes on laptop angle at least in Q1. Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (13699)	10/13/2000 2:31:23 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pentium 4 won't dominate Intel sales until 2002 news.cnet.com Couple days old, I don't know if this was posted previously. With all the smoke and mirrors around the P4, it may be a massive misinformation play by Intel, like the alleged sandbagged leaked benchmarks. Because of a number of marketing and technical issues, the more technologically advanced Pentium 4 will continue to be overshadowed by the Pentium III, at least in terms of revenue and units produced, for some time, say analysts and Intel executives. "When does it become the economic center of gravity and when does it become the unit volume center of gravity?" asked Bill Siu, vice president of Intel's Architecture Group. "It won't be in 2001." In 2002, the Pentium 4 will start to overtake the Pentium III in terms of revenue, he said, but "in terms of units, it will be longer than that." I don't think those statements are consistent with 10-12million a quarter by 4Q2001. The length of the timetable derives from the size of the Pentium 4, said Linley Gwennap, principal at The Linley Group. The Pentium 4, when it debuts, will cover approximately 217 square millimeters, more than twice the area of current Pentium IIIs and larger than the 180 square millimeter chip expected earlier by analysts. The principal problem surrounding the chip's size is that it greatly reduces the number of chips that can be produced form a single silicon wafer. "The same wafer will yield three times as many Pentium IIIs as Pentium 4s," Gwennap said. "You're throwing away two-thirds of your yields." The larger size means the Pentium 4 will cost around $80 to $90 to manufacture, more than double the $40 manufacturing cost of the Pentium III, he estimated Gotta get to .13um, as the saying goes. If Intel had total confidence in the P4, I don't think they would be bringing the PIII up to .13um, they could crank out plenty on existing lines, if the P4 was really ready to carry the mainstream weight. And I'm not sure sure if 1/3 as many p4's per wafer fully accounts for the reduced yield from a die that's close to 3x as big as the PIII. Who knows, though. I've previously stated I think Willy is a big psyops play to drive everybody crazy. Cheers, Dan.