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To: Keith Fauci who wrote (135)10/13/2000 5:30:19 PM
From: Tomato  Respond to of 326
 
After having averaged down the last month or so, I sold for a 30% loss toward the close. I'm betting that 31 days from now the price will be below $8 and that I'll have ample opportunity to jump back in at lower prices. I didn't mind Clark jumping ship, or the co-CEO leaving, but 1. the Indian co-founder leaving didn't sit right with me 2. the lack of specificity at the conference and the universal analyst thumbs down bothered me as did 3. the fact that success sounds to me now to hinge on the wireless Palm Pilot-type thing that isn't proven yet and wasn't even on the radar screen before the conference.

Hope I didn't sell at the low (actually, I know I didn't, as I sold at 7 7/8 ;-)) but as the cliche goes, time will tell. Good luck to everyone holding on. Hope to join you in a while.



To: Keith Fauci who wrote (135)10/13/2000 8:51:32 PM
From: Sr K  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 326
 
You ought to re-read your post.

I think today's action was extremely bullish for the stock having closed above the 52-week low and only down 1/2 a point.

The stock closed 6 hours from its 520000-week low. It underperformed NASDAQ for the day, and it closed down for the day. The only thing bullish is that some 5-minute moving averages have the 10 unit (50 minute) crossing through the 50 unit (250 minute), with both now rising.

What pattern of stock price movement do you think is normal for a stock moving from 10 (or 20 or 30 ... or 100) to 4 or lower? Do you expect it to hit its daily low at 3:59:59?

And, if the company indeed does not know what they are doing, what do you think would happen? Would some management and board members leave? Would everyone leave when there is $800 m cash? Would perhaps one leader remain or win out over the others? Would he change direction and say he has a new plan? Or, would he say business is great, and I'm going to stick with the old plan; I'm gonna make it work.

One rule in investing is to have a reason for why you invested, and when the thing you relied on as the basis for the reasoning changes and you are tempted to change your reason, it is a major evaluation point. Not an automatic sale, but almost every time an investor allows his reason to change, he gives up any discipline and will just ride out what happens. Most experienced investors bail when the reason changes, unless there is a very good reason to expect the new changes to work. It is like a surprise inflection point.