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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (110453)	10/13/2000 6:51:47 PM
From: Danny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Eric, I came up with the number from both technical and fundamental analysis: T.A: The sign of bottoming out is clear. The real low in May was 3034 (or 3024 I dont remeber). NASDAQ has been dropping like a rock. But when it reached 3000-3200 level, it has been tremendously resilent to any further downside. In fact, we only dropped something like 97 points yesterday (in that kind of environment) was a sign that bottom was near. The trading volume has been big in recent days, but we closed almost at Monday's level. Compared to the August slide and early Sept slide, this shows fund managers are really starting to load the tech shares, as evidented by the strong support for CSCO at 50. Capitulation followed by a big turnaround with huge volume has been a good indicator that bottom has been reached. 4000 looks like a big hangover resistence, that's why I use that as a target. F.A: So, purely from T.A's point of view, I can be almost 90% sure that bottom is gone. The reason I put only 70% for 4000 really comes from the F.A. Fundamentally, like I have said many times here, the only thing this market has not been dicounted for is a recession in 2001. Anything else, the market is undervalued. As soon as people see that economy is still in good shape, money will flow back to tech. Why do I think economy is not likely to go into recession? Let me ask: Have we seen the hard evidence that economy will go into recession in 2001? Aboslutely not! People are just speculating at this point. Lots of what ifs flying around. JNPR and GLW sure do not see any weakness in telecom, and ARBA will mot likely not see any in B2B. Even INTC's warning does not point to any kind of recession any time soon. The reason I dont have 90% confidence here is, yes, because of Mid-east conflict. But world has changed a lot since 80s. Even the mighty Berlin wall was gone. Dont jump into conclusion fast. Arafat is playing the game to get more than he has been offered (BTW, I am not going to engage with any kind of political discussion here). We will see what weekend could bring to us. So, for now, I am assigning 70% chance for the 4000 target. If mideast situation calms down, my confidence will go up to 90%.